What exactly are we waiting for?
What was once our enemy’s front line positions are now his rear, where he was once strong he is now weak, where all of his might was once concentrated against us it is now far away turning the tide for two of our other great enemies, we could land a knock out punch right now!
Of course we won’t do anything of the sort, we’ll sit and watch, perhaps making the occasional air strike. Watch the Free Syrian Army get cut to pieces by the Russia, Hezbollah, Iran, Alawite, Iraqi Shiite alliance and allow Iran to reap the rewards of victory.
Even as Hezbollah openly threaten us, even as Hezbollah gain influence over the border regions in the Golan as well as their home base in Lebanon we simply sit and watch and wait for the inevitable, the moment at which we are sucked into this war regardless of our restraint. When the occasional mortar becomes daily mortar attacks and when there are constant cross border raids and when our Air Force has to face a hardened Surface to Air Missile threat, then we’ll act and we’ll act slowly and lethargically and without any clear objectives…and we’ll lose.
When the ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote that “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged war” he hit the nail on the head. Our war with Hezbollah has been allowed to sputter along for too many years. Their insistence on destroying Israel alongside the incompetence of our own political and military leadership has ensured that they have been able to stay the course, constantly arming, growing stronger and preparing the next battle. We have allowed them to become the fighting force which has the strength to tip the balance for Assad and pro-Iranian fighters in Syria.
We also have the strength to tear them apart. What Sun Tzu said with regards to protracted conflict holds true to the lessons learned in Lebanon:
“When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.”
Our ardor was certainly dampened by the effort it took to hold a wafer thin strip of land in Lebanon for so long. Reluctance to jump into the fight until it’s absolutely necessary is perfectly understandable but the threat posed by Hezbollah is a strategic one and should be dealt with by a strategy focussed on destroying them. What we are doing at the moment is focussing on the tactical, our leadership asks; “did they hit us today?” What they should be doing is planning to knock out their ability to strike entirely and now is the perfect time.
Right now we have the opportunity to hit Hezbollah while they are exposed, while their attention is focussed elsewhere, while they are fighting far from home and where their lines of supply are extended. What was their front line is now their rear, if we hit them now we can force them to disengage from Syria and we can destroy the stockpiles of missiles that are aimed at Israeli cities. If we strike now we will be attacking them where they least expect while they are entirely unprepared and unable to resist.
If we attack now we win, if we wait we will be playing the enemy’s game, attacking on a battlefield of his choosing, at a time when he is best prepared for us.
Attack them now and win, let them attack us tomorrow and we lose.