Netanyahu has called for elections, yet I am not convinced.
Whether or not one agrees with Netanyahu’s policies, the Prime Minister is undisputedly a masterful politician. Therefor one must ask why exactly would Netnyahu call for election. What could possibly be his motive? Let us examine if elections are election are held now, who will be a winner and who will be a loser?
To start, it is clear in our case that there are no winners. Livni, Lapid, and the Chareidi parties will all lose seats. The more seats they respectively have, the more they are expected to lose.
Netanyahu, for his part, claims that he cannot govern with a coalition that is constantly attacking itself from the inside. However, it is almost certain that after the next elections the government will be even more fractioned than it is now. So while Netanyahu may be correct in arguing that he needs a more stable government in order to govern he, understand that elections will not bring a more stable government.
So it is clear that there are no winners. In fact, almost everyone loses. Let’s take a look….
Lapid will lose almost half of his seats.
Livni will lose several seats(again) as she continues her slow and painful political death.
Mofaz is most likely out in the next elections.
Bennet is projected to do fine. He however still does not have a mandate of unity in his party which could be very problematic for him, if not detremental.
Chareidi Parties are expected to take a big hit as a result of the passing of Rav Ovadia Yosef Z”L.
Netanyahu gets an even less stable government.
So in short if there are election everyone loses*. If everyone loses one must ask: “Why would Netanyahu call election if it benefits no one?”
It seems very obvious Netanyahu’s call for elections are quite simply a bluff. He just flashed the vision of political death before his opponents’ eyes. And if need be he will in fact have elections. After all the political death of Livni and Lapid is quite a gain. If not for Netanyahu, then for the country as a whole.
Livni and Lapid(as well as other) can either come crawling back under Netanyahu’s conditions, or they can all lose their jobs. Time will tell what they choose.
(*Obviously, if everyone is losing seats someone must gaining seats. Kachlon will likely get many of them with the rest being scattered insignificantly amongst the larger parties)