Let’s play a little game of speculation: What will happen if Israel unilaterally declares Gaza an independent country? The idea is startling, not only to Israelis but to the entire family of nations, especially the Arab and Muslims ones.
The borders between Israel and Gaza are already more or less fixed — except for a slice of Gaza bordering on Egypt that Israel must re-occupy as a safeguard against arms smuggling.
True, there will be another anti-Israel vote in every United Nations organization — but does this really matter?
What does matter is that huge amounts of foreign aid will flow into Gaza; and those who give the money will dictate its use—at least in theory.
What does matter is that the first thing the State of Gaza will do is to establish embassies and consulates abroad — to be staffed by the political leaders of Gaza, thus moving a goodly part of the leadership abroad. The message these ambassadors will preach will be anything but to start a war with Israel. Hamas will try to prove it is a peaceful country with a peaceful population to win acceptance as such.
Simultaneously, the political leaders staying at home will find ways and means to divert most incoming funds from many sources to help the new national get on its feet. These funds will somehow worm their way into their own pockets. Tradition must be preserved. And those who give funds also are able to influence policy.
And the leaders of Gaza, remaining in Gaza, will subdue their talk of war against Israel, since this will harm the incoming flow of “goodies.”
Thus, two considerable groups of leaders will be partially neutralized.
Israel will lift the embargo on Gaza, thus saving it the expense of providing humanitarian aid. Let Turkey, let other countries and groups, take over the expense of providing humanitarian aid.
(We are ready to speculate that this “humanitarian aid” from abroad, whose purpose until now was anything but idealistic, will begin to dry up quickly.)
Israel will allow a few thousand “safe” workers to enter Israel every day, which will help a bit to lower the jobless rate in Gaza.
The advantages of low key cooperation on many other fields — medicine, education, etc — will soon develop.
True, the Muslim world, especially Iran, will begin pouring arms and ammunition into Gaza; Gaza will establish a professional army, headed by Hamas, whose first task will be to subdue and disarm the independent splinter terrorist groups responsible for the latest outbreak of terror violence against Israel.
The biggest drawback to recognizing Gaza as a state is that the terrorists will now become recognized as legitimate soldiers. Hopefully, they will make war — if it comes to war — on Israeli soldiers. But can they break a tradition of murdering Israeli babies, toddlers, kids, their parents and grandparents?
However, any time Gaza resorts to shooting missiles into Israel, we will have the right to declare a state of war, and invade and swiftly overrun Gaza.
Foaming at the mouth will be the Palestinian leaders in the West Bank, first at losing part of the goodies pouring into Gaza, second at losing part of their future state.
But Pakistan and Bangladesh also found this the best solution, isolated as they are from one another. If anything, the founding of the state of Gaza will make the West Bank leaders take a deeper look at negotiating a settlement with Israel.