The Iranian government is still reeling from the weakening of its ally Bashar Al Assad.

In fact many in the Iranian government are probably preparing for the day after his fall.

Life without Bashar will not be easy for the Iranian regime as these days it is becoming more isolated than ever before.

On the 7th of October the Iranian regime could lose another ally: Hugo Chavez.

He is standing for reelection and some believe that his victory is by no means certain.

Chavez has never been the same after his cancer. The fact that he has ruined Venezuela’s economy with his populist policies has also hit his popularity rating.

If Iran loses Chavez, it could lose its influence in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua too. The reasons are explained in this piece which I wrote for The Atlantic last year.

The results of the Venezuelan elections will be watched closely in Tehran, for good reason.