Tehran’s decision to expand highly enriched uranium into an underground bunker in Fordo near the holy city of Qom brings it closer to the ability to produce the fissile core of nuclear warheads.
The Islamic Republic’s consistent refusal to allow international inspectors to gain access into the Fordo nuclear facility and the Parchin military complex has frustrated Western powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Amazingly, decades long efforts by western countries to prevent the Islamic republic from becoming a de facto nuclear state has failed.
The Six Powers – China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the United States – have been willing dupes in Iran’s diplomatic dance of divide and conquer.
In the Iranian context, however, its diplomatic scheme and strategic priorities in the netherworld of nuclear deceit has really paid off.
Iran believes its strategy worked – and, rightly so, with help from nuclear weapons engineers from Russia, Pakistan and North Korea assisting Iranian scientists in their efforts to attain nuclear threshold.
Nowhere can you find Iran’s bellicose stance most intriguing when it touted its technological prowess into the realm of space monkey business.
Oddly, the Iranian attempts to launch monkeys in suborbital space were all unsuccessful, to say the least. Indeed, it was part and parcel to conceal Tehran’s quest for more powerful ballistic missiles.
To a large extent, putting a monkey briefly into space was seen as a propaganda operation with few, if any, military applications, possibly to demonstrate Iranian defiance as Western sanctions bite ever deeper.
In short, it was a publicity stunt that says nothing about its ballistic missile capabilities.
Nevertheless, it was designed to buy time- a diplomatic gambit that serves them well in the past- to boost its negotiating leverage with the P+5 or the Six Powers.
On the contrary, Iran has learned immeasurably from North Korea’s brilliant pattern of deceit, and it has proved to be a very effective strategy.
In addition, the Iranian regime has become an unwitting benefactor along with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as a result of Obama’s perilous shift in US foreign policy.
Why Iran is singled out as an exception for its right to enrich uranium is understandable- its existential threat to “wipe Israel off the map” and its consistent hegemonic ambitions threaten Arab nations and the West.
Today, it does not bode well for Israel and some Sunni Arab Gulf States- as Iran have been increasingly the greatest purveyor of terrorism in the entire Middle East and beyond.
It may be an understatement but the sad facts of reality remains- the theocratic regime won’t accept suspension of its nuclear gains since Iran’s right to enrich its own uranium is an issue of strong national pride.
Henceforth, a nuclear-armed Iran is not only a formidable threat to existence of Israel as a state – but it represents a clear and present danger to the national security of the United States.
It is inconceivable, therefore to think that Iran could miscalculate US and Israeli resolve to prevent it from acquiring atomic weapons.
Yet, in the absence of diplomatic solution, Iran’s nuclear facilities will forever remain hostage to an armed attack.
The moment Iran is closer to having a nuclear weapon, the more likely Israel and/or the US to attack Iran- who in the end will not be successful to build even one.
Meanwhile, various Western and Israeli media have been quoting Iranian sources as saying that the Fordo enrichment facility was rocked by a massive explosion a few days ago – shortly before Israel’s general elections on January 22nd.
Despite a US denial and dubbed by Iran as western propaganda; Israeli defense officials say it’s unclear whether blast that trapped 240 nuclear personnel including North Koreans, was result of sabotage or accident.
The mysterious explosions in an underground nuclear site underscore how an undeclared shadow war against Iran works in the midst of another war.
Military and political pundits may concede that in the light of the secret targeted killing of Iranian scientists, sabotage of military-industrial complex including its ballistic missile infrastructures- there may be no need for further escalation of the conflict into a full blown war.
Make no mistake about it.
Despite the theocratic regime’s rant, it is also understandable that Iran’s military playbook is far more rhetorical than operational.
At issue that continues to baffle some intelligence experts, the impressive covert ops somewhat prove to be a cost-effective deterrence against Iran’s illicit nuclear program.
Mindful of these facts, it is not surprising to hear about mysterious accidents and explosions in Iran.
Along with this concern, as many have perhaps suspected, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak confirmed that the US has prepared plans for a ‘surgical‘ military operation to delay Iran’s nuclear program.
Thus, in the event of absolute diplomatic failure, surgical strike is not only an option but a necessity to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Obviously, most false flags are viewed dubious at its best, but certainly do not necessarily equate to an all-out war.
Having already attained some of the materials and expertise needed to build nuclear weapons – Iran would appear to be suicidal not to forego its nuclear weapons program.
The time has come for the ayatollahs to come clean to dispel any rumors that seriously cast doubts of military dimension to its nuclear program. And, of course, the window of opportunity is closing faster than many people may think otherwise.
Indeed, there can be no doubt at the moment that the mysterious explosion at Fordo – confirmed by Israeli sources could be a harbinger of more catastrophic events coming to Iran.
Against the backdrop of these loose talk about counterproductive unilateral military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites- Israel has nothing to lose albeit, more to gain by striking a conventionally-armed Iran rather than a nuclear one.
In no uncertain terms, it is more important than ever for Iran to reverse exercising a nuclear weapons option by closing its nuclear site in Fordo and halting enrichment beyond normal fuel-grade.
Most importantly, the IAEA must have unrestricted access to its existing nuclear power plants including Parchin which the IAEA and Tehran have been haggling over in the past.
As we have learned about Iran’s duplicity and deceit, there can be no iron-clad guarantee that diplomacy and pressure will be effective in convincing Iran from forgoing nuclear weapons.
Finally, to those who truly understand the odds to those who are just playing for fun, but never, ever play nuclear poker against a religious nut.