There is no reason to escape reality by pretending that the Levant region is not experiencing a sectarian awakening. Iran’s concentrated power, getting much help from Mr. Obama, is now embarking on a quest to control the weaker Sunni States. All that talk of diplomacy and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is just window dressing of bearded mannequins drawing daggers.
Sunnis States with effective means to stand-up to Iran find themselves either too poor, or too distant (Egypt in N. Africa), or too constrained (Turkey in Europe). Mr. Obama has released the Gorilla from the zoo and Khamenei is unto his own stage now playing god while spilling the blood of others.
Iran must first consolidate its foothold in Syria by winning its war against the majority Sunni population it killed with snipers, barrel bombs, and SCUD missiles courtesy of Putin’s war machine as well as Kerry’s peace. We always knew how close John Kerry is to Baschar al-Assad, but we are just going to find out how much they love and respect each other on January 22 when a conference Kerry masterminded and dubbed it as peaceful corrals the Syrian rebels into Assad’s dungeons of death. Obama and Kerry are both helping Iran consolidate and hegemonize the region while pretending peace is their ultimate goal.
After Syria, Iran will move southward. Bahrain and Kuwait are the most vulnerable because of a large and unstable Shia population.
In Kuwait, the US has deployed close to 14,000 military personnel on two US Air Bases (Ahmad al-Jaber and Ali al-Salem) and one Navy Base (Camp Patriot), which is the largest contingency amongst the Gulf countries. In Bahrain, the US has about 6,000 military personnel in Sheikh Isa Airbase, Muharraq airfield, and naval support for the US Fifth Fleet. Incidentally, Assad, in September 2013, threatened all US bases with terror if the US attacked his regime. Obama blinked against a desperate thug fighting for his life, which goes to show the world how Mr. Obama is weakening America.
Some may question the possibility that Iran would risk US anger given US interests and military investments in both countries. However, before discounting it, consider Mr. Obama’s agenda driven by his own quest to shrink US military presence overseas (He brought US troops from Iraq and is now embarking on bringing the US troops home from Afghanistan). If Iran plays its hand well, it may serve Obama’s interest to close more Airbases he may feel are expressive of what is wrong about American might and power. In fact, Iran may just be the excuse Obama needs to bring more troops home if Iran attacks any of these bases using surrogates like al-Qaeda or some other Sunni terror organization the way it did in Iraq (yet, the US still believes its No. 1 enemy is AQ, not Khamenei, or Assad).
Without Khamenei and Assad, AQ would dither and die. Both are keeping this US enemy alive as a proxy for their terror.
The region is embarking on a new era with new terror tactics where missiles may now be fitted with nuclear heads. Assad opened the Sunni vs. Shia great divide while Obama watched from the sidelines and this quarrel will not subside before a temporary winner rises or both tire after years of cloak and dagger augmented by terror, destruction, and mini-wars waged on multi-fronts.
In the meantime, Mr. Obama stubbornly stands by his ideology and his mistakes keep piling-up to make the world a much more dangerous place for all of us.