President Obama has made it perfectly clear that under his leadership of the Democratic Party that Israel and the Sunni Arab states are on their own. For Israel, this means that it has a small window of opportunity before advanced cruise missiles (anti-ship) will become standard fare for the Hezbollah in Lebanon. This puts at risk the entire Israel gas project and sets the stage for a massive resupply of advanced missiles and other equipment to Iran’s Shiite terrorist proxies on Israel’s two northern borders.
This is early 1967 all over again. Obama stated flatly that he stands behind diplomacy and not war when it comes to the Iran nuclear file. But what this president fails to understand is that the nuclear file can never be compartmentalized from the balance of power in the rest of the region. Obama has essentially given the Iranians a free-ride when it comes to the hundred of billions of dollars that will be freed once the Iran sanctions become lifted.
However, Obama claims that his diplomatic “achievement” on the nuclear file is more important than the conventional facts on the ground. But with nearly one hundred thousand missiles facing Israeli population centers, try using that argument in Tel Aviv or Haifa. It just doesn’t wash. The American commander and chief is so hell-bent on avoiding another war in the Middle East, that his appeasement of Iran will only hasten another Lebanon war and very soon.
The Israelis and the Sunni Arab states are counting on Washington to roll-back Iranian influence throughout the Arab world. But to listen to Obama, the American leadership offers little in the way of confidence that the US has any strategy for the region other than its conventional green light toward Iran and massive weapon sales to Israel and the Sunnis. But what kind of strategic partner would allow the lifting of the ban on cruise missile technology within the context of the Iran nuclear deal? Because of this Israel faces huge and immediate danger. Weapon sales will not deter their use.
On the contrary, the faster these weapons are put into the field, the sooner the Israeli necessity for war. What the US administration fails to understand is that the expansion of weaponry into South Lebanon can simply not be tolerated any longer. The Saudis are playing a waiting game with regard to Washington but Israel doesn’t have that luxury. The longer the Assad regime holds on to power, the worse it is for Israel. Assad is not just a client of Iran, he has become their puppet. And by doing so, Iran’s increased involvement on Israel’s borders has become an anathema to its security. Hezbollah’s missiles need to be gone, or Hezbollah must face the awful consequences.
Israel will never be able to rely on Barack H. Obama to understand the dilemma it now faces. This President sees the Middle East through the blinders of his own anti-imperialist left-wing perceptions. He is fixated on the 2003 US war against Saddam Hussein. But Israel now faces an advancing Iranian hegemony whose own imperialist project is about to become a helluva lot wealthier. Will this American president risk boots on the ground in order to prevent the Iranian resupply to Hezbollah and Assad? The answer is perfectly clear: of course not.
The Democratic Party has essentially become an anti-Israel party because it is now against any kind of American action in the Middle East. In other words, it is anti-Israel by default. The same is true for the Sunni Arab states. They too understand that they are now on their own. Their bold course in Yemen proves that when push comes to shove, only the Sunnis alone have the will to defend themselves. Why else would they be in negotiations with the Russians for advanced weaponry and a so-called “peaceful nuclear program”?
As the great comedian Jackie Mason quips, “the New York City Health Department has a tougher inspection regime than Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran”. Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader of Iran is not joking when he states flatly that there will be zero IAEA inspections of Iranian military bases and zero discussions with Iranian nuclear scientists. Without prompt access to either the military bases and the scientists, how can anyone feel secure about an Iranian sneak-out? But even if Iran plays it straight and agrees to the American interpretation of the agreement (a very big if), within ten years they will have an internationally approved industrial-level nuclear program. Everyone knows that an industrial level nuclear program cannot be monitored for a potential sneak-out. This makes it a certainty that under Obama’s deal that Iran will become a nuclear weapons power if and when it decides to do so.
Within this general context, a fourth Lebanon war becomes a near inevitability. Israel is on its own and must protect itself from the advancing Iranian menace. If the region is to eventually to go nuclear, the only thing to stop that momentum would be a nuclear-weapons-free zone. But just like in 1967, conventional threats by aspiring hegemonic powers (Iran and its Shiite proxies) are now as much a danger to Israel as Nasser and his allies were back then. Obama’s Iran nuclear deal has only decreased the timeline toward action. With the sanctions lifted over the course of the next months, the dangers in Lebanon and Syria become more acute. Obama claims that diplomacy is better than war, and that without his nuclear deal war is the only logical outcome. he also claims that anyone against this very bad nuclear deal with Iran is somehow a warmonger. This is a very naïve view, because it fails to understand that there is already a massive war in the Middle East and the nuclear deal will assure its vast expansion.
Perhaps, however, there is a silver lining. Certainly, Iran must understand that Israel will never allow the Hezbollah arsenal and its advancement to proceed. Also Tehran must equally understand that the weakest link in Syria and Lebanon is Assad and Hezbollah. If or when Israel enters the war, Iran’s geopolitical position will be set back by decades. The future of both the Shiite community and its Alawi cousins will be put into serious jeopardy. Ironically, Iran’s nuclear deal with Obama will place the entire Shiite Arab world in a state of dire and total panic. Because the next Lebanon war will be existential in nature due to the closing window on conventional operations caused by the certainty of nuclear proliferation inherent in the fatally flawed Obama plan. Iran must reevaluate its position or face the Jewish state in a total war. These are bitter fruits of an American foreign policy that will have little choice but to do nothing in the way of helping Assad or Hezbollah once the fighting begins.
God is the author of human history and God’s Will is the certainty of the promise made to both Ishmael and Isaac. I have no doubt that all faithful Muslims and Jews understand that the Divine Will cannot be fought even by the most powerful of human leaders. I am convinced that all true believers understand that Israel is in the region to stay because so it is written in both Koran and Torah. The ball of peace is in the Supreme Leader’s court. If he sticks with the Iran deal, he loses. If he rejects the deal, he must come up with a truly peaceful diplomatic alternative. God be praised.