Humans take for granted that history is generated by following a certain logic, and we fail when we believe that the world is more predictable than it actually is. They may have to rewrite the political biography of Menagem Begin and Ariel Sharon and weigh if they were great strategists, or humans influenced by the pressures of the times. In any case, we have to thank them for their spectacular blunders of returning the Sinai to Egypt and Gaza to theIslamists, things which allowing us to experiencelivethe fallacy which says that historyis generatedfollowinga certain logic(Territories of peace?) Andthe fallacy about the world aroundIsraelbeing predictableand doomed toa certainincrementalevolution.
What do Hamas and the Futbol Club Barcelona have in common? The answer lies in a sinister autocracy called Qatar which sponsors various global projects thanks to the price of oil staying for ages above $ 100 a barrel. The Emirate has so mindless and inconsistent financial projects such as building the largest mosque in Europe in Barcelona and / or generously funds a terrorist organization like Hamas. The only way for radical Islamic organizations such as Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Al-Nusra (Syria) or ISIS (Iraq) to prevent thefinancial flowsofthe Arab monarchiesbeing invested inyachts, real estate and otherluxury goods inEurope and the UnitedStatesis to relivethe conflicts thatare at your fingertipsand aretheir way of life, as organizations.
Hamas is not a particularly intelligent or effective organization. It has merely dedicated to exploit the two features you have at your fingertips. The disregard for human life and its ability to obtain generous alms of oil autocracies, in exchange of keeping open the conflict with Israel which has been legitimated (purchased) by those who were in power in Muslim countries . The opportunistic use of their moral inferiority by Islamists as a weapon in the war against the West is recurrent and was used before in Gaza, in the attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001 or the carnage of Atocha in Madrid in 2004 or the bombing of London in 2005.
From Ben Gurion to Benjamin Netanyahu, all Israeli leaders have wanted to think voluntaristically in Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people as a normal State in the world community of nations. Do we help them better understand the reality of the Middle East if we abandon this voluntarist idea? Often the metaphors, such as stereotypes, help us to understand partially complex realities. A useful metaphor for understanding reality will compare Israel to the vicissitudes of the First Gay State on Earth. Socanthe Zioniststry to understandthe virulence ofPalestiniandemonstrationsaround the world, orthe double standardof morality andpoliticalcynicismthatdemocratic countrieshave withIsrael.
Be theFirstGayStateEarthimpliesseveral importantchallengesaGayNostatewould not face. For example, it should have asufficienteconomicallyandmilitarilydefensibleterritory.It is alsovitalto be strongerthan its neighbors,much stronger.Andthis strengthmust come froma spread oftechnological capabilityof conventional weaponsand especiallyunconventional. It is also importantthatthe citizens of theStateGayknowthat, for now, they are alone.That if they losea war with theirneighbors, the most that can be expectedfrom someWestern democraciesis sending fewhumanitarianboats to pick upsurvivors.
It was known well in advance of Mavi Marmara’s arrival, as it was known that Hamas (like Hezbollah did before) was to use human shields or was making thousands of missiles (as Hezbollah is doing), or was building tunnels. All we know, all we knew, and those who knew more were political conflict specialists and the Israeli army. The response of the political and military of Israel to the simple challenges of Hamas prisoners is one of NARROW-FRAME institutions, caused by hyperspecialization, FROM WITHINseekingsolutionswithknown dataand fromthe reactivity formrather than the proactivityone.
In the financial world are widely used the term “opportunity cost“. What we miss, or fail to win, to make an investment and not another. According to this simple financial concept, the huge sums of money invested in the Iron Dome is a questionable investment. The system allows reactively, attempts to assassinate citizens of Israel, 90% fail. Any Hedge Fund in the World (and any Pension/Mutual Fund why not?) would pay much more for a system that would allow me to kill my enemies in 90% of cases proactively. This is an example of FRAME WIDE VISION FROM OUTSIDE. Complacency of Israel Iron Dome is an example of how we create our own fallacies, guided by specialists who suffer tunnel vision of reality.
Israel is not a state like any other in the concert of nations. Israel is a state that has to pay a premium for existing, measured in costs to its citizens and all the world’s Jews. In human societies, paying a premium for the right to be, it has not been uncommon. Think Cervantes or Shakespeare thanks to extraordinary efforts rose above his contemporaries and could live in societies that succeed or severely penalized deepest identity. Neither geniuses have, however, survived a week in a country ruled by Khaled Mashal or Abu Bark Bajdadi.
If Theodor Herzl or Levi Eshkol could see the dimension of Israeli companies listed on the Nasdaq market in New York would not believe his senses. In Israel’s success in the development of high-tech companies have come together several factors, but one of them has been a FRAME WIDE both interdisciplinary and flexible. Exactly the opposite is observed in the conduct and analysis of the warfare with Hamas. How is a missile launcher that’s hidden beneath a building full of hostages without killing any destroyed?, It is an algorithm that can not resist the Jewish genius. We must seek a vision from outside because the view from within the IDF does not give more of itself.
No Wall Street broker will sign peace with the Arabs with oil prices above $ 100, would be an absurdity. When alternative fuels (nitrogen?) will make the oil bubble burst, countless Islamic terrorist organizations will be found without funding, and a barrel of oil below $ 10 Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product will be like that of Paraguay. Then talk about peace, we must not worry about the time. Instead make mandatory reading for military service of Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow to start to build a WIDE FRAME thinking on the conflict and on Israel. And do not mind of being “different”, “unique”, here on Earth, think a Gay State would have it more complicated with its neighbors that the State of Israel.