It is now 11:52pm in Israel. In 32 hours the cease-fire will lapse. If not extended, we shall see Israel being peppered with Hamas rockets, fired from what little civilian areas remain untouched in Gaza. In reply the overhead drones will instantaneously relay launch site co-ords to the IAF, who in turn will obliterate a few hundred square meters of Gazan infrastructure in a blast radius centered on the launch site. And then on to the next launch site. And so the cycle of violence will continue.
What is of concern is the NDTV video showing how Hamas setup rocket launch sites in between hotels, and then, according to the reporter the rockets are fired by timer or remote. This proof of rocket sites between soft targets was quickly followed by France 24’s video of a similar nature, also adjacent to a UN building. So it would appear that blasting the rocket sites only serves to destroy the rudimentary launch pipes buried, and buildings in the area, with the Hamas rodents having long scampered from the scene. This makes the job that much harder for the IAF, firing precision guided high explosive warheads at $20 pipes…
So the obvious question, hypothetically of course, is how to eliminate the persons operating these angels of death, because we can only assume that they still have a few thousand rockets bunkered away, and another 20 000 jihadis ready to step up for martyrdom? Ideally, the talks in Cairo get an agreement to demilitarise Gaza, in exchange for an easement of the blockade East, North and West of Gaza. Of course, the tooth-fairy will bring helpers to see to the demilitarisation, because who else is going to oversee the process? The PA? Not likely!
Sadly Hamas have had 9 years to build their militia and arsenal, and with blips on their program in 2008 and 2012, and now a large dent with Protective Edge. It is safe to say that whatever is agreed by “the otherside” will only be fulfilled insofar as it follows the extremist agenda, attack and destroy Israel. Without that agenda, they are irrelevant, as they have nothing else to offer the Palestinian cause.
I hear you asking, if they have agreed to terms and conditions, how do they get out of the implementation phase? Well, if we have learned anything of how Hamas and its jihadi comptariots operates, we know that lies, truth distortion and civilian sacrifice are all part of their modus operandi. In military circles the term “False Flag operation” is used, usually in hush tones and heavily redacted documents if any exist at all.. Sometimes in war and even peace, it is necessary to create the required catalyst to stimulate a desired outcome. The false flag refers to an action carried out in a way that your enemy can be saddled with the blame, and despite their denials, your outrage and an already hostile world opinion will create a reason to stop or start any process you wish. False flag operations occur more often that anyone would like to admit. It’s always a touchy subject, and these things fall under the realm of shady black-ops departments in various countries, nothing like the glamorous heroes created in Hollywood. This is not conspiracy theory, it’s the nasty, horrible underbelly of the world we live in.
So the blockade is eased, the southern border at Rafah is opened with Egypt, and all militants are to be disarmed under the watchful eye of the Palestinian Authority. Great… except for one thing – Militants without weapons are just civilians. So a massive car-bomb goes off outside the Gaza home of a Hamas commander, who fortunately is not at home at the time, but dozens of civilians are killed and maimed. And Israel is the scapegoat, and the world screams blue bloody murder, and the righteously indignant Mashal appears on television stations across the golbe, from his Penthouse suite in Qatar, stating that the deal with Israel is off, and crying and wailing and all the things that could earn him an Oscar. Far fetched? Really? You have no idea how easily this hypothetical scenario becomes reality.
Every country has a dirty tricks department, every militant army has extremists who will stop at nothing to pursue their agenda. In apartheid South Africa it was called the Civilian Co-operation Bureau (CCB), in the USA its off-book “contractors”, under the watchful eye of the Firm, with enough distance from the events to claim plausible deniability.
It is now 2:00am in Israel, for the second night the scream of sirens, explosions of Iron Dome success overhead, in the scrub-land of unpopulated hinterland of rockets missing the vitals of Israel, are absent. Sleep is enjoyed, even if somewhat lightly, tomorrow at least, life will continue with a semblance of normality, as everyone waits for the other shoe to drop. 30 hours and counting…
In closing, I pray that HaShem take care of the innocents who find themselves in the middle of this cease-fire at this troubling time.