There’s been a lot of talk recently about Bibi’s speech at the UN General Assembly. Some people have been critical about his “cartoonish” presentation. Others have lauded it as being attention-grabbing. I’m not here to pick apart that speech.
I’m here to present some facts, and some things that are readily apparent when digging slightly beneath the surface.
Fact 1: Iran has enriched approximately 190kg of Uranium to 20% purity as of August 30th, 2012. This figure comes from the IAEA. This is up over 40kg from their last report in May. This means that Iran is enriching Uranium at a rate of approximately 10kg / month.
Fact 2: It takes much less than the above numbers to make a nuclear bomb. While it’s hard to find exact figures, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had 64kg of Uranium. It seems that with an efficient enough trigger, you could make a considerable explosing with 25kg of Uranium.
Fact 3: Iran asserts Israel has no right to exist.
Fact 4: Iran supports Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria and other organizations that are sponsors of terror, specifically against the State of Israel.
Fact 5: Iran has threatened Israel and its inhabitants, and has warned that Israel would be destroyed if they attack Iran’s nuclear reactors.
To summarize the above: Iran is well on their way to becoming a nuclear threat, and the threat they are posing is to the state of Israel. Now let’s proceed to some less obvious facts:
Fact 6: Bibi doesn’t want to bomb Iran. If he wanted to bomb Iran, he wouldn’t be talking so much about it. If he wanted to bomb them, he’d have done it. He has – despite what he says – pushed back his timetable. His previous “red line” was when Iran’s facilities would be well guarded enough that they were at a “point of no return.” Now his red-line is sometime in Spring of 2013, which one has to assume is when he believes a substantial amount of fissile material will reach >90% enrichment (which is needed for a nuclear bomb).
Fact 7: The people of Iran have never been threatened. Bibi, the Israeli government and the US government have threatened to attack the nuclear reactors. But the people of Iran have never been threatened by the above governments.
Fact 8: The people that stand to lose most from a war with Iran are the people of Israel. Sadly, the people that stand to lost most from NOT going to war with Iran are ALSO the people of Israel.
I don’t have anything new to add, but to say that all of the above: the reactions, the counter-reactions, the “fallout”, the collateral damage… all of that is set to take place right outside my window. For those of us who choose to live in ground zero, these threats are not hypothetical. The catch 22 (bombing leads to war, not bombing leads to bombing) is very real. We are all stuck in a nuclear game of chicken, and like WOPR said (in that final, memorable scene in War Games), “The only way to win is not to play.” Only in our case, it’s the only way to not win, too.