Consider the following elements as you consider the threats Assad and Iran are leveling against everyone and their uncles.
Assad could not even dislodge badly-armed ragtag rebels from the Ghouta district outside Damascus and had to resort to gassing its people in order to control the district.
As far as his missiles are concerned, there are several reasons why Assad and the Mullahs will not attack any neighboring countries.
- If Assad or Iran attack Jordan, they both risk inviting Arab boots on the ground in Syria, as well as strong retaliatory responses by the US fleet against the Assad regime itself and all its assets. Assad will not survive the attack. Article V and Article VI of the Charter of the Arab League have the built-in mechanism to respond to his attacks.
- If Assad or Iran attack Turkey, they both risk involving NATO against Assad and possibly against Iran.
- If Assad or Iran attack Lebanon, they risk a wholesale uprising against Hezbollah as well as a strong retaliatory response by the US against more targets inside Syria.
- If Assad or Iran attack Israel, they risk a strong response by the Israelis and a strong response by the US fleet protecting the Strait of Hormuz against specific Iranian targets, which will permit the people of Iran to rise against Khamenei and his thugs.
Both Assad and the Mullahs of Iran understand the stakes if they attempt to follow-thru with their empty threats. There is no reason to fear either when the US strikes Assad, which I believe is more of a psychological blow when you consider Assad’s 11-year old son was taunting Mr. Obama on his Facebook page.
Assad fears more the fallout from his diminished capacity to strike fear in the hearts of others than the actual damage of a US strike. What is a snake worth without her fangs?
The period between now and the US strike is critical because Assad has but his hollow threats to stop the attack. If we let him, he will grow bolder and may believe in his own invincibility, which will lead him to cause more atrocities.
The US strike is imperative to clip Assad’s wings the way President Reagan clipped Qaddafi’s with the El Dorado Canyon operation in 1986.