The biggest winner from the new union between Benjamin Netanyahu & The Likud Party and Avigdor Liberman and his Israel Be’yteynu is the left.
I believe this union will weaken the right section and will make it more difficult for Netanyahu to form a government. This decision of union will take around 10 Knesset members from the right, as the Likud is estimated to bring between 23 to 27 seats and Israel Beyteynu around 13 to 16 seats, which is at best 43 seats and at worst 36 seats.
Together, I project they will bring less than 30 seats. This is a loss of 12 seats from the current situation.
Now let’s do the math based on the current partners of Netanyahu. 30 seats plus plus 15 from Shas ((they will get some of the Likud/Lieberman votes), plus 5 from Habait Hayeudi (they will also get some of the Likud/Lieberman votes), plus 4 from Yahadut Hatore comes to 54 Knesset members of the “real” right section.
This means Netanyahu will need the support of one of the center-left parties such as Yair Lpid’s party to form a government, or reach at least 37 seats on election day.
This is a major blow for the right and a great opportunity for the left.
Even in the current state of affairs the left has a real opportunity to win the elections and form a government. It all depends on two questions: will Livni/ Olmert run? And how solid will Shelly Yechmovitz campaign will be. So far it isn’t brilliant, but it is solid.
One last prediction. This election cycle is causing a lot of interest and many people are jumping ship and joining the political game. BUT, I will predict we will have another elections in mid-start of 2014, which means about 1.5 years from now.
Let the games begin.