While the world feeds herself with high rising hopes and anticipation over the outcome of tomorrow’s Trump-Kim meeting, been the first for the secluded dictator and the hyper-reactive president, here’s a list of six possiblities which may not be expected;
1) Immediate denuclearisation: The talk of every analyst currently rings the bell on whether or not Trump would push for an immediate denuclearisation. However, it must be noted that Kim Jong Un would never accept denuclearisation without tangible and practical fulfilment of already made speeches and promises, and on the American side, Trump isn’t a silly deal maker who wouldn’t keep his words; so both sides would be looking forward to action backed words. Trump may insist on having access to Kim’s nuclear sites, and oversee a gradual disintegration of North Korea’s nuclear programme, in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, as well as restoration of bilateral relations between both countries. Already, Trump have proven to be much more better in bi-lateral than multilateral negotiations, at least the recent fallout from the past G7 summit just proved so.
2) Immediate sanctions lifting: No matter how willing and ready Kim may be tomorrow, there can be no possibility of Immediately lifting sanctions. Trump has continiously lashed out at Barack Obama for lifting sanctions on Iran before ever concluding a holistic deal, and obviously he isn’t ready to make such mistakes too. He would prefer to have coins to trade with and to bring back Kim to the negotiating table at will, instead of letting go all coins without anymore tangible bargaining chip. So don’t ever expect to see full sanctions lifting under a President Trump, that would come slowly and gradually, with each step engendered by Kim’s full co-orporation.
3) Withdrawal of American forces: Obviously, this too may be on the table (that’s if Kim brings it up), but for a hardliner like Trump, that wouldn’t be an option for now; it may be possible in the distant future, but never now. The US would never abandon her defense pact with an ally for another who isn’t yet one. So keep your fingers crossed, have some cold drinks, ’cause we aint getting that any soon.
4) A Trump walk-out or a Kim Harague: Well for sometime now, both leaders have put aside old differences and tried to forge ahead in a highly unprecedented manner. Tomorrow’s meeting could turn out to be more friendly and memorable than we expect; never forget, a bromance is still possible.
5) Discussions on Human rights and illegal imprisonment: Trump may overlook discussing North Korea’s past record of human right abuses, and this obviously would garner condemnation from certain human right bodies; however there is a high potency that he may discuss unlawful imprisonments, especially of Japanese citizens which Prime minister Abe Shinzo has continually voiced out for quite a while now.
6) Signing a comprehensive deal: Signing a Peace treaty could be a beautiful immediate workover as Trump has already indicated, but a much more comprehensive deal may not. Certainly, Trump would want to give Kim an assurance of American fidelity and as a result would love to get a congressional ratification for any pact or agreement.
However, if tomorrow’s negotiations fails to achieve it’s aims, there certainly will be one path only left for Trump and Kim, which is ‘To resume hostilities.’