While everyone is talking about Iranian nuclear weapons the real Iranian threat is being overlooked. Not since the ancient times has Persia been such a powerful force in the region. From the Mountains of the Hindu Kush to the Mediterranean Sea the Ayatollahs ether hold sway or have their forces fighting to impose the power of Iran upon the country’s populace.
Where once Assad was merely a useful dictator for the Iranians he is now firmly in their pocket, where once Iraq was an implacable enemy of Iran the Shi’ite armies are fighting a bloody sectarian civil war. 10 years ago there was one Western army sitting to Iran’s East and another sitting to the West, where American influence once lay Iranian influence has either taken over or is in the process of doing so. Here in Israel we now have Iranian backed forces to our North in Lebanon and the North East on the Golan Heights, they are also supporting Hamas in Gaza to the South West.
While the world watches Iran’s nuclear reactors who is watching the spread of the Shi’ite theocracy throughout the Middle East? Certainly the Sunni states are watching, petrified of the spread of their natural enemy. They are bankrolling the Sunni fighters against the Iranian, Shi’ite, Alawite forces in Syria. They are losing. There are no good outcomes in this war for Israel but currently the smart money is on Russian backed, Iranian led forces to win.
But it appears that Israel, Europe and the once all important United States are too busy talking about weapons of mass destruction to notice the placement of their adversary’s pieces on the global chessboard.
In the nuclear arena it’s really not all bad news. The deal being discussed by the West versus Iran, as reported in the Times of Israel is one that is unlikely to see Iran in a position to create nuclear weapons. This has been painted by Bibi as some kind of nonsensical trick on the part of Iran. Quite frankly this is a serious insult to just about every country currently involved in the negotiations and there are many. Bibi has failed to prevent these negotiations from taking place to now sit on the sidelines and throw vitriol at Israel’s natural allies can only help the Iranians who have successfully driven a wedge between Israel and the USA.
Currently the exact purpose of these negotiations are to prevent the Iranians from building a bomb, it is highly unlikely therefore that the moment sanctions are relaxed the Iranians are going to be in a position to produce a bomb. More to the point if the Iranians do choose to humiliate the US, EU, China and Russia after reneging on their deal the sanctions they are suffering under now will seem like a picnic and Israel will find every single power in the world on its side.
Far more worrying is what a resurgent Iranian regime with sanctions lifted and influence stretching all across the Middle East and beyond will do with their reacquired wealth. It is highly unlikely that it will be positive for Israel. The question is not how do we deal with a nuclear Iran but how do we deal with an Iranian regime that is rich, powerful and sitting on our borders with their finger on the conventional trigger.