2020 presidential election. Republican National Convention update

A few days ago, I published a blog comparing the DNC and RNC (Day 1). Briefly, my assessment of the DNC was that it featured socialism, pessimism, gloom and doom, chaos, lawlessness, and divisiveness. Moreover, many of the speakers found it necessary to lecture the voters on how racist the president and his supporters were. In my view, the principal theme was America is bad; we must tear it down and rebuild it as a progressive/socialist “utopia.” Ask yourself, if the US is so bad why are millions of people so desperate to come here?

One might wonder, logically, how the Dem’s vision of America would be achieved, and who would pay for it? Well, those pesky little details were not addressed adequately and honestly, although I think it’s obvious that we, the people, would be paying for it in the form of tax increases. After all, the money would have to come from somewhere, and there simply are not enough rich people to cover the entire amount. To paraphrase House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s infamous and inane comment regarding the Affordable Care Act, “you will have to elect us to find out.”

On the other hand, I characterized the RNC as featuring capitalism, optimism, hope and promise, law and order, unity and a celebration of America’s virtues. After three days of the RNC I would like to “double-down” on my initial assessment. The RNC has been featuring what is positive about America, the “good” in its citizens rather than the “bad,” and, of course, patriotism. In my view, that is a winning message.

The speakers have come from very diverse backgrounds, not just GOP officeholders, Trump staff members, and Trump family members, but also ordinary citizens. The latter group has included individuals who have overcome serious obstacles in their lives, often with the assistance of President Trump. These “feel good” stories have been most inspiring. The speakers included a wide cross-section of Americana, for example, men, women, youngsters, African Americans, Hispanics, immigrants (legal), military personnel, independents and even a Democrat or two.

Most of the speakers have been nothing short of compelling. To me, the best ones were:

1. Jim Jordan, Congressman.
2. Nicholas Sandman, former Covington High School student.
3. Herschel Walker, former NFL Hall-of-Famer and longtime friend of the Trump family.
4. Andrew Pollack, father of a murdered Parkland High School student.
5. Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota.
6. Pam Bondi, former attorney general of Florida
7. Tim Scott, Senator from South Carolina
8. Melania Trump, First Lady
9. Lara Trump, president’s daughter-in-law
10. The group of five legal immigrants that took the Oath of Citizenship live.

They were all memorable and compelling in their own way. In my opinion, their stories went a long way to discredit the Dems’ assertion that president Trump is a racist, a misogynist, and, generally, not a nice, caring person. If you didn’t see them I urge you to find them on U-Tube, and see for yourself.

Historically, following the convention the Party is the beneficiary of a “bounce” in the polls. The size and duration have varied, but there almost always has been one. This time, as reported by Reuters and Politico, the Dems did not receive one. According to the latest CNBC poll Biden’s lead nationally and in the six crucial swing states surveyed – AZ, FL, NC, MI, PA, and WI – has even narrowed slightly. He is tied in NC and slightly ahead in the others.

Most pollsters will tell you that in polling momentum is critical. Therefore, these results do not auger well for Biden even though he is still leading. This pattern is eerily similar to that of 2016. The same poll disclosed that Mr. Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly from 46% to 48%.

Concurrently, most voters’ concerns over the CV, though still high, have been diminishing. This is likely a result of the fact that cases, hospitalizations and fatalities have all been on the decline. Also, there seems to be real progress on various therapeutic treatments and even a vaccine. The same poll disclosed that 66% of likely voters expressed “serious” concerns about the CV compared to 69% previously. Furthermore, the latest Pugh Research poll found that the CV is not the top campaign issues. The top issues are the economy and law and order. The CV has slid to 3rd or 4th. Again, these trends auger well for Mr. Trump.

CONCLUSION

The RNC has one day to go – the Grand Finale. The featured speaker is the “big dog,” President Trump. I think we can anticipate a very positive result. I expect the audience to be well “north” of 40 million, and the post-convention bounce to be sizeable.

Furthermore, I would not be surprised if the next polls report a slight lead for Mr. Trump. Regardless, I expect the election to be very contentious, acrimonious and very close. We may not even know the winner until well after Election Day. As Mr. Trump is fond of saying, “we’ll see what happens.”