In trying to analyze the 2020 presidential campaign I feel somewhat confused. I feel as though I am living in an alternate reality. Much of the information seems anomalous to me. What’s happening does not make sense. It seems like up is down, and down is up. Left is right, and right is left.
1. All the polls show Biden leading President Trump nationally by anywhere from nine to 14 points. He is also leading in most of the battleground states. If those polls are accurate Biden will win in a landslide. However, based on the higher level of enthusiasm I have observed for Trump from his supporters compared to Biden from his supporters I question whether these polls are accurate. As in 2016 I think President Trump’s support is greater than they indicate. Biden may still be ahead, just by not as much.
Most analysts agree that a Biden victory would be a drag on the economy and the stock market for various reasons. So, given the polls, the stock market should be declining. Yet, it is rising. Why? It is very contradictory. As I write this, the index is at 26,734, which is a substantial increase from the low of 18,592 on March 23. It’s as if the index is anticipating a Trump victory.
2. It seems to me several planks in the Dems’ platform would be too extreme for most Americans. In a “nutshell” they have adopted the Bernie Sanders socialist platform. Just a few months ago that was considered to be too radical. Now, the Dems have embraced it.
3. In my opinion, the worst idea is the Green New Deal. Among other things it would eliminate millions of jobs. It would destroy the coal, oil, gas and automobile industries, among others. Yet, the polls report Biden is leading in all the states that rely on those industries (PA, MI, and OH, among others). Why? Don’t the voters appreciate the ramifications of the GND? It doesn’t make sense.
4. The Dems are advocating raising taxes to pay for all their programs. Historically, raising taxes has been a death knell to any campaign. Normally, politicians avoid mentioning the “T” word at any cost. Yet, apparently, not this year. Don’t middle class voters realize that their taxes would be raised also? Again, it doesn’t make sense.
5. In my view, the Dems have been unable or unwilling to deal effectively with the rioting, violence, chaos and crime in the cities they control. Their main strategy has been to defund the police departments in those cities, which has exacerbated the problem. Most major cities have seen substantial increases in murders and other violent crimes in the past few months. Few criminals are arrested. In NYC the “no bail” law enables criminals to get out of jail the same day and return to the streets to reprise their criminal behavior. According to Forbes Magazine the top ten cities with the highest levels of violent crime are all controlled by Dems, in some cases for decades. I’m talking about NYC, Philadelphia, Detroit, Seattle, Portland, DC and Baltimore, among others. I know many people who, at this time, will not venture into NYC. Others who live in those cities are thinking of leaving. Biden and other leading Dems have refused to condemn this chaos, crime and violence or even criticize it. This should have hurt the Biden campaign. Yet, he remains ahead. Again, illogical.
There are various other inconsistencies, but the aforementioned should serve to illustrate my point.
I find it very hard to believe that a majority of voters would be in favor of raising taxes, chaos, violence and crime in the cities, and the Green New Deal. Moreover, most of the electorate seems to have chosen to ignore or at least discount Biden’s obvious decline in mental acuity. It is apparent every time he opens his mouth.
Perhaps, they are unaware of the severe ramifications of these policies and Biden’s condition. The Dems are on the wrong side of all these issues. Furthermore, any objective person would have doubts that Biden will be able to perform the presidential duties of the office. I have discussed these, in detail, in previous blogs, and there is no need to repeat all of them here. Trump should be ahead comfortably. Yet, he is losing.
I can only think of three reasons for this: (1) the irrational hatred of him by about half of the electorate, which is causing many of them to ignore the existential threat of the Dems’ socialist policies (2) the biased media, which continually presents the most negative side of everything he says and does, and (3) he is being blamed for the extent of the coronavirus pandemic. Nothing can be done about the first two. With respect to the coronavirus there is plenty of blame to go around. Trump has not been blameless, yet neither have the state and local politicians, the media and the medical experts. Information out of China was unreliable, inconsistent, and misleading, especially in the early stages. All of us were deceived. Be that as it may, there are multiple reports that we are close to an effective vaccine. Perhaps, we will have it before the election. Hopefully, that will save Mr. Trump.