A New Mideast after Taking Out Iran?

Suppose the U.S. does the right thing in the next week or two — takes out the Iranian regime. What’s likely to become of the Middle East the day after?

The answer is unusually clear: It will become a much better place.

Let’s review the effects on the neighborhood, starting with the near extensions of the Iranian regime – the proxies– and moving on from there.

The Proxies

Iran’s proxies will wither on the vine, once they’ve lost their Iranian subsidies and arms supply. Many of them are already weakened today by Israeli actions in the last year. Take away the strategic depth they get from Iran, and their local Arab opponents will become much stronger than they are. They will be sitting ducks. They will either negotiate their phasing out into normal society, or else fall like dominos.

What about the Houthis? Probably the Saudis will finally become able to eliminate them, in collaboration with local Yemenis.

Hezbollah? Probably Lebanon will finally be able to eliminate it, or get it replaced by a different Shi’a party that’s not terrorist and not Islamist. Israel would be ready to help it if needed.

Iraq? It will see the writing on the wall and finally eliminate the proxy militias Iran set up there.

A New Round of Abraham Accords

A larger round of Abraham Accords could be expected to ensue.

Lebanon and Syria will need to make peace on sustainable terms with Israel.

They will also have to make domestic peace on terms that provide real security and autonomy for their Druze, their Kurds, and in the case of Syria, their Alawis.

Syria may have to accept Israel as the protector of Druze and Alawi areas as autonomous areas inside Syria. It may have to accept America as protector of the vast Kurdish area.

And Hamas? The Palestinian Authority will finally be in a position to overpower and replace it.

And the Palestinian Authority itself? It would get no more regional financing for families of West Bank terrorists. It would finally have a chance to clean up its act and become more consistently moderate. And it would have little choice but to do so; there would no longer be much of a radical second stool alongside Israel for it to sit between. This would enable it to restart the peace process with Israel, this time as a much more serious process than before. It will probably feel it has to do this, since its position vis-à-vis Israel and the West will be far more exposed than before.

And Saudi Arabia? Its arguments for delaying on its Abraham Accord would be gone. It will no longer need a nuclear program for defense against Iran. Or many of the other items on its wish list of preconditions. It should be ready to sign quickly and move on into a new era.

Will Peace Break Out All Around?

Half-way. The part that is peace with Israel will break out pretty far and wide. The part about peace among Arab and Muslim populations will improve but remain messy.

We got a start on peace breaking out with Israel half a dozen years ago, with the Abraham Accords. The Biden Administration belatedly embraced the process, but foolishly broadcast loudly that another Abraham Accord was soon in the offing with the Saudis. Hamas and Iran took the opportunity to throw a monkey wrench in this prospect by pulling off October 7.

With the Islamist regime gone from Iran, the march to peace is likely to resume. And a more solid peace this time. Peace will no longer be a mirage in the desert.

And Islamism? It will look more and more like the wave of the past.

Major Gains to American Influence and Interests

America will finally have a chance for a successful pivot of security efforts from the Mideast to East Asia. One that won’t turn out, like Obama’s and Biden’s pivots, to be an invitation for our enemies to fill the vacuum with more wars in the Mideast, wars that have kept sucking our forces back in, and on worse terms.

At the same time, America’s authority will be strengthened throughout the Mideast and beyond — in Europe, in Africa, in Southwest Asia… It will be in a position to do new and better deals throughout the Mideast.

Will it be Perfection?

Not at all. There are the usual caveats: The Mideast will remain a venue of many problems and conflicts. Think Sudan, Turkey, and a bit farther afield, Afghanistan, Pakistan.

It simply will be much better, almost miraculously better, than the Mideast of today.