A world in disarray #2

So Israel finally has a new government. A monstrous coalition of never seen proportions. Bibi and Gantz signed a bunch of papers which cripples the Knesset lawmaking completely – turning Israel into a quasi-duopoly-autocracy. For now.

Israel’s freedom of Democracy rating will plummet. Three elections. Corona and finally a corrupt Netanyahu staying in power with about 75 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. This is done by Likud, Blue & White and some minor far right parties.

Israel doesn’t have a constitution. It has Ottoman law, Brittish law and then built some sort of law book with a lot of lawmakers rotating ever since 1948. What happened now is that Bibi and Gantz finally agreed to sit together in a unity government. The problem is that they realized that either one of them will stab the other in the back at one point or another, in order to oust the other. So they signed an agreement on not backstabbing each other, they both have a veto and both must agree in order to pass any laws. But here comes the ugly part – no laws can be passed without them both agreeing – and the Knesset with its 120 seats ceases power to them. How? Because the Knesset cannot hold majority votes of 61 vs 59 – it has to be 70+ according to their agreement. Which is now also made into law and no one blinks an eye, because everyone is busy with Corona.

What’s even more problematic is that the opposition is within the coalition. The basic fraud of Gantz bringing his votes to Netanyahu and leaving a trail of dark smoke behind him in his truck which now the opposition has to face.

What is then the opposition? It’s the complete spectrum of Israelis. The Joint List, Hadash and Meretz. But the opposition is strong socially. Ayman Odeh has surged arab voter turnout. And the arabs are Israelified quickly, because they are on the frontlines of Corona. Quoting a journalist in-house who said “Look at the Northern Galilee, they are producing doctors, nurses, medical staff and other key-people to the left and to the right!”. And yes that’s true, partially – the arabs of Israel understand that in order to become anything they need to study. And they study hard. A recent poll conducted shows a majority identifies as Israeli. Only 10% identify as Palestinians. Has their identity been lost? NO, but they adapt – just as anyone do. This change is happening so fast, that the generation born in the 60’s and 70’s don’t keep up with the speed of the transformation. In the same time – another poll shows that a majority of Palestinians in the West Bank view Arabs of Israel as traitors. So be it.

And then there is the tribal voter consensus in Israel. Depending on what family or village you belong to, a representative negotiates a deal with a political party – the party which at the moment will provide most benefits to them is also what the family, village, religious affiliation or neighbourhood will vote for. This goes for Sephardim, Haredim, Arabs, Druze, Mizrahim. Those who uses their indivodual voting right are the western european congregation. And even they tend to vote in the same direction as their surroundings.

Are we done yet? Oh no. Dear no. Israeli politics can be described and discussed until the end of the world. The hottest topic right now seems to be the complete annexation of the Jordan Valley and area C. Israel wants this, so does Jordan. Israel has since the 1970’s kept a mutual silent understanding that it’s of both countries interest to keep that border calm. Jordan will officially rebuke, perhaps even declare war on Israel due to the annexation. Don’t forget that the West Bank was under Jordan control until the Six-day war in 1967. But silently, Jordan will cynically agree to the annexation of the valley – since they are under the Israeli safety umbrella net. Jordan thanks Israel every day for this – there is a reason Daesh or other lunatic Jihadis never spread to Jordan, it was because they knew that Israel would have stepped in. And facing Israel in a full-out war would lead to ultimate defeat in a matter of days.

When looking on the amnexation fiesta that will happen – because diplomatic fallout will only be harsh from individual states and perhaps UN. The Arab League has left Mahmoud Abbas and the Palesrinian struggle a long time ago. Those Palestinians living in Jericho and Area C, a total of 190.000 individuals, will receive Israeli cirizenship and the pro’s and con’s with that. A negative effect that we can predict for certain – is that Hamas will gain ground, influence and radicalize the rest of those living in Area A and B.

A lot, atleast Israelis calls the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for a dictator. He has remained in power, in order to not turn what is left of the West Bank into a Gaza 2 0. Dictator? What are his options? Any naive person cam say thet the Palestinians deserve democracy – that sounds. But this is the Middle East after all. And most Israelis votes the same way a Palestinian would do – by casting hiis/hers/its vote through a tribal vote.

The world never ceases to surprise me. We are all in the same storm – but we ride different boats.