Are We Winning, Yet?

“War is politics by other means” attributed to Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz

“War is politics by other means” is understood to mean that war should be viewed as a continuation of political objectives, but achieved through the use of military force instead of diplomacy; essentially, war is a tool used to achieve political goals when other means fail.

Israel has, in the last year, demonstrated over and over its military superiority. Gaining tactical success after tactical success. Striking at the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas wherever they may be. Israel has succeeded in decapitating both Hamas and Hezbollah eliminating their political and military leadership in well-executed operations one after the other. Coming after the blunders and defeat of October 7, 2023, this has managed to restore some aspect of deterrence and fear to Israel’s adversaries. Unfortunately, after more than one year of war in Gaza and the start of ground operations in Lebanon, Israel has still not met the three major objectives set out by the political leadership: eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah as threats, enable citizens to return to their homes in the North and the south and return all the hostages to their homes and families.

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One thing I’ve observed over the years, especially when it comes to Israel’s wars, skirmishes, and campaigns against the Arabs in general and the Palestinians in particular, is that Israel’s definition of winning and defeating their adversaries is not the same as their enemy’s definitions. It’s not enough that Israel declares victory, its adversaries have to admit defeat otherwise no victory can be claimed. To date, none of the operations, campaigns, wars, or assassinations have resulted in the Palestinians admitting defeat. Will any of these campaigns, ground operations, wars, assassinations, targeted attacks, or any of the endless military actions make Israel’s adversaries feel and admit defeat? Time will tell but, given the history of the last 75 years of the conflict, I would bet against it.

The central failing of Israel’s security doctrine in the political, intelligence, and military spheres is to see the threats against Israel as finite, tangible, and measurable. As a result, the political and security establishments focus on destroying what they can see, count, and report on. Every day we hear reports of so many launchers destroyed, so many missiles captured, so many kilometers of tunnel destroyed, so many leaders killed or captured, so many enemy fighters killed or captured, and so many battalions disabled. It gives a false sense of security and engenders a facade of progress towards victory. After all, if what we need to do to ensure victory is simply destroying a finite resource, then it is only a matter of time, focus, and energy until enough finite resources have been destroyed and victory can be declared.

What is chronically overlooked, ignored, and indeed swept under the carpet is the motivation of Israel’s adversaries. The motivation of the Palestinians, to violently resist, fight, and struggle against Israel is rooted in a 75-year history of displacement, suffering, occupation, trauma, denial of civil and political rights, and massive generational trauma fostered on them by Israeli policy of escalating retaliation.

There are 5.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. There are a further 2.1 million Israeli Palestinians. There is an endless pool of potential recruits that Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and other extremist organizations can draw on as long as the Palestinians feel they have no hope, are humiliated, and continue to lose brothers, sisters, parents, spouses, friends, and family to the ongoing violence.

It is not enough to end the war by destroying resources, both human and material. As long as the motivation to violently resist exists, the Palestinians will find ways to regroup, rearm, and restart the killing. The only way to end the 100-year Israel-Palestine War is through diplomatic means. Every intelligence service can be fooled, every army can be taken by surprise, and every barrier can be breached. When all three happen simultaneously great military blunders happen. Some examples are the Battle of the Bulge in WW2, the Bay of Pigs in Cuba, and the Tet Offensive in Vietnam,  In Israel’s case this happened on Yom Kippur in 1973 and 50 years later on October 7, 2023. In the absence of a political solution, it is only a matter of time until another military blunder of similar or greater proportions happens.

Unfortunately, Israeli leadership seems incapable of forging a diplomatic solution that will end the 100-year conflict with the Palestinians. I would hazard a guess that the reason lies deep in the psyche of Zionism and the type of Jew that it has created in the state of Israel. There were two different contrasting possibilities for the character of the new Jew created out of the crucible of Zionism in the state of Israel. The first is that of a secular, liberal, democratic Jew who lives in a nation where all its citizens are treated as equals, have equal civil and political rights, and have equal opportunities no matter their sex, gender, sexual orientation, religion, or ethnicity.

The second is a religious, conservative, theocratic Jew who lives in a country where Jews have a superior status in law and practice to non-Jews, and who lord it over the non-Jews who have an inferior status. While in practice It is not so clear cut as the previous descriptions, the state of Israel has tended towards the latter where demographics, a 57-year occupation, settlement, a flawed political system, and messianic Judaism have resulted in a Jewish population that supports a nationalist, religious government, which announced when formed, that only Jews have rights “in all of the Land of Israel,” which strives to annex the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, to dismantle national institutions and the independence of the judiciary, and to deepen “Jewish identity” to formalize and impose religious Jewish practices, behaviors, and norms in the public sphere. 

This government, representative of a majority of Israeli Jews, preaches and practices an ethnocratic vision of Jewish superiority in the state of Israel. While there is a parliamentary opposition to the current government, in practice a majority of the opposition supports the same vision of Jewish superiority and Jewish-only rule in the State of Israel, as evidenced by the ongoing formal and stated rejection by the majority of Jewish political parties to sit in a governing coalition with non-Jewish, Palestinian Israelis.

We are now in the third generation and maybe the fourth of young soldiers who have been raised to believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is imposed on us from above. That we cannot change the position we find ourselves in. That there is no partner for peace, that there is no one to talk to. The only way to survive in the area is through a forever war to protect fortress Israel. This belief stems mainly from the world view of an ethnocracy of Jewish rule, where Jews are superior, the enemy is dehumanized, does not value life, and is not seen as like us in any way. The only way to deal with such an enemy is through force. I have heard over and over from colleagues, friends and acquaintances that “Arabs only understand force.” I am quite sure that the Arabs constantly tell each other that “The Jews only understand force”. The belief that Palestinians only understand force complements a corresponding view that the Jewish state is intellectually, technologically, and culturally superior. A major part of the trauma engendered by October 7, 2023, is that it convincingly demonstrated that the Palestinians can fool, outsmart, and defeat Israeli technology, intelligence, and armed forces in a manner that is devastating to Israel.

Peace, that elusive vision that we all desire demands compromises. From both sides. It cannot be imposed by the stronger party on the weaker. It requires a change in worldview and the realization that one has to negotiate with equals, not as a superior negotiating with an inferior. To date, more than one-year post-October 7, 2023, we have yet to hear any notion of a strategic vision from Israel’s government. There is no plan for Gaza, the West Bank, or south Lebanon except for continuing with more of the same – a forever war. Unless Israeli strategic thinking moves away from only resorting to force and complements tactical military action with strategic vision designed to deal with the underlying issues, Israel will continue to win tactically while losing strategically and fighting a forever war.