Barry Lynn
Intersection of Science and Policy

Blizzard warning for Jerusalem

Weather It Is, LTD Snow Accumulation Forecast for February 17 2021

Good Morning:

A blizzard warning for Jerusalem and surrounding areas for this afternoon and evening.

The latest forecasts have shifted the center of cold air tens of kilometers southward from the forecast of yesterday morning.  This returns us closer to our original forecast of heavy snow for the Jerusalem area as well as the surrounding locations. The difference is only a small fraction of the amplitude of the atmospheric winter wave but has very important implications for our weather.

Low pressure moving southeastward across Cyprus will reach our area this afternoon. Snow flurries fell this morning in Jerusalem as temperatures were near freezing. This afternoon, there have been heavy snow showers. Our ensemble forecast shows that the heaviest snow should fall in the Jerusalem area between 5 and 8 P.M, and in Gush Etzion from 5 to 11 P.M.

As the coldest air moves in, winds will increase to 50 to 60 km/h, with higher gusts.  Heavy snow and wind should combine to create blizzard conditions across the central mountain areas, including Jerusalem as the afternoon moves on to evening.

Late this afternoon and night, the snow should accumulate generally 5 to 10 cm in the Jerusalem area, with between 10 and  20 cm in higher elevation areas of the city boundaries.  In the area of the Shomron 15 to 20 cm,  while in Gush Etzion 30 to 40 cm.  Northern areas, such as Meron and Sefad should receive between 5 and 20 cm, depending on elevation.

The storm will abate on Thursday morning, but it should remain cold and wet (with rain, rather than snow, to follow on Friday/Shabbat.

Be well,

Barry Lynn

About the Author
Dr. Barry Lynn has a PhD in Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He has an undergraduate degree in Biology. He is a researcher/lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is the CTO of Weather It Is, LTD, a weather forecasting and consulting company.
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