Cause and Effect

The threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran to Israel is a constant factor in national and regional security, starting from the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and carries different characteristics depending on the historical period. However, over the past two years and especially after the crossing of the unofficial “red line” with mutual attacks on Israeli cities from Iranian territory, the threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is taking on an existential character.

The issue of when military action will begin will remain open until the very start of the war or the appearance of clear indicators of its preparation. For Israelis, such indicators may include sudden emergency instructions from the Home Front Command throughout the country, and the closure of the entire airspace, both over Israel and over Iran. But even these indicators do not clearly point to the beginning of a full-scale war, and for example, may be identical to previous attacks.

One of the key factors influencing both the timing and the likelihood of military conflict is the negotiations. A diplomatic agreement between Iran and the United States currently being pursued through talks in Oman may, in fact, introduce new complications for Israel. As it stands, these negotiations merely postpone what appears to be an increasingly inevitable regional war, with the tone of both Ali Khamenei and Donald Trump growing more confrontational by the day. The terms of any potential agreement do not fundamentally alter the situation, given that the ayatollah regime has repeatedly violated its obligations under key strategic agreements in the nuclear sector. This includes numerous documented breaches of the NPT: Iran’s acquisition of dual-use gas centrifuge systems from Pakistan in 1994–1995; the procurement of components necessary for building nuclear weapons, denied by the Iranian government at the time it signed a bilateral agreement with the Russian Federation “On the Use of Nuclear Energy for Peaceful Purposes” in the mid-1990s; and the ongoing failure to comply with NPT safeguards, as detailed in the IAEA Board of Governors report dated June 12, 2025.

If Iran were to gain access to nuclear weapons, the result would not only pose an existential threat to Israel but also give Tehran the ability to assert significant control over the Middle East’s regional security structure through nuclear leverage. Such a development would represent a direct threat not only to the region, but to the broader international security system.

The signing of a diplomatic agreement would offer only the appearance on paper of political success for Trump. In practice, however, the Iranian threat would continue to escalate. From Israel’s perspective, the signing of any “nuclear compromise” would in fact exacerbate the situation. The Israeli leadership may then find itself caught in a dilemma: initiate military action without US support, or risk delaying intervention thereby giving Iran time to maneuver.

It is also worth underscoring that even if the Oman negotiations fail this coming Sunday, all parties are likely to still have time to prepare for an eventual strike. This could lead to a strategic race for preemption, or alternatively, to a prolonged period of calculated restraint until one party assesses that the conditions are optimal for escalation.

Another key-factor behind the possible transition from prolonged escalation to open conflict is the political context: dissatisfaction with the domestic policies of both Trump and Netanyahu is growing steadily among the populations of their respective countries. For both leaders, a crisis centered around Iran’s nuclear program offers a convenient opportunity to rehabilitate their public image.

In this light, the events currently unfolding within the Iran – USA – Israel triangle represent both the cause and the effects of a long buildup to war and quite possibly the beginning of the war itself. Its exact timing, for now, remains unknown.

Or perhaps… someone already knows?

(Vlada Goldstein)

12.06.2025