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China-Iran: A Strategic Friendship Under Pressure
In late December, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi made his first official visit to China since assuming his post. The visit came at a time of heightened economic and security challenges for Iran, facing what some analysts describe as the most severe crisis since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. While official statements from Beijing projected a sense of continued cooperation, Chinese public opinion reflected growing skepticism toward Iran’s trajectory.
As reported by The Diplomat, in a Mu Chunshan analysis discussions on Chinese social media revealed two main perspectives on Iran, both critical but for different reasons. One faction expressed frustration with what they perceive as Iran’s incompetence, arguing that China is “tired of being the country’s friend.” Many in this camp ridiculed Iran’s predicament, some even suggesting that Tehran should develop nuclear weapons to counter the United States and Israel.
The second viewpoint, while equally critical, focused on Iran’s strategic failures in the Middle East and their implications for Chinese interests. Rather than advocating for nuclear armament, this group urged Iran to rethink its foreign policy, drawing lessons from China’s own historical experience. According to this perspective, Iran should abandon its reliance on regional proxies and focus on domestic economic and political reform, similar to China’s approach under Deng Xiaoping.
Echoes of the North Korean Dilemma
Araghchi’s discussions in Beijing reportedly included the Iranian nuclear issue, a topic that has remained unresolved for over 15 years. The Diplomat recalls a past interview with Araghchi in 2007, when he was deputy foreign minister. At the time, he dismissed comparisons between Iran’s nuclear ambitions and North Korea’s, stating, “Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons.” Now we’re talking about CRINK: the “Axis of Upheaval” between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
However, today’s situation appears to be shifting. Amid the weakening of Iranian proxies across the region and increasing direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, Tehran’s security calculations may be changing. Recent statements from media linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have explicitly proposed the development of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against Israel and the US. Discussions within Iran indicate that acquiring nuclear capability is no longer considered a taboo issue, raising concerns about regional stability.
Meanwhile, developments in North Korea offer a cautionary precedent. The failure of the Six-Party Talks and Russia’s apparent willingness to recognize North Korea’s nuclear status could embolden Iran to follow a similar path. If Tehran perceives that nuclear weapons guarantee regime survival, the chances of diplomatic resolution will diminish, increasing the likelihood of military confrontation with Israel and the US.
China’s Strategic Dilemma
While Chinese officials expressed a willingness to expand cooperation with Iran during Araghchi’s visit, there is reason to believe that Beijing shares some of the concerns voiced by its own citizens. Concerns have emerged within Chinese discourse that Iran could follow a trajectory similar to Syria, leading to prolonged instability. The recent collapse of the Assad regime, which survived more than a decade thanks to Iranian and Russian military support, serves as a warning.
For Beijing, Syria’s fall was an unfortunate but manageable setback. Iran, however, is a different story. As a key node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Iran plays a central role in Beijing’s Middle East strategy. Chinese investments in Iran far exceed those in Syria, making stability in Tehran a priority for Beijing. Unlike Syria, where China had limited direct involvement, Iran’s potential destabilization poses a real challenge to China’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.
A Lesson from China’s Own History
Iran’s reliance on proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq mirrors Cold War-era policies once pursued by China and the Soviet Union. During the 1960s and 1970s, Maoist China engaged in revolutionary export, supporting communist insurgencies in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe.
However, after Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping dramatically shifted China’s strategy. He abandoned ideological-driven foreign interventions in favor of diplomatic normalization and economic reform. Beijing established diplomatic relations with the United States and implemented its “reform and opening up” policy to the West, which led to decades of rapid economic development.
For Iran, a similar shift could provide a path out of economic stagnation and regional isolation. Rather than diverting resources to military and ideological struggles, Tehran could reinvest in domestic infrastructure, education, and economic development.
Can Iran Pivot Toward Pragmatism?
As Donald Trump prepares for his second term, Iran faces a strategic crossroads. Iran’s leadership may view Trump’s return as an opportunity rather than a threat. His previous approach to North Korea demonstrated a willingness for flexible diplomacy, suggesting that Tehran could explore renewed nuclear negotiations, potentially abandoning clandestine weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief and security guarantees.
A critical element of any rapprochement, however, would be Iran’s stance toward Israel. China officially defines its relationship with Israel as an ‘innovative comprehensive partnership’ and continues to advocate for the two-state solution, contrasting sharply with Iran’s approach. Unlike Iran, which continues to call for Israel’s destruction, China balances its support for Palestine with pragmatic ties to Israel. If Iran were to moderate its hostility, it could reduce tensions and create new diplomatic opportunities.
China’s recent mediation efforts, such as facilitating Saudi-Iranian reconciliation and intra-Palestinian dialogues, suggest that Beijing is positioning itself as a stabilizing force in the region. If China can persuade Iran to improve its ties with the US and Israel, it would serve not only Iranian interests but also China’s broader strategic goals.
The Future of Iran-China Relations
Iran’s current trajectory is fraught with risks. Pursuing nuclear weapons will only escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of conflict with Israel and the United States. As If Iran instead chooses to develop nuclear weapons as a misguided attempt to cope with internal and external pressure, then confrontation with the US and Israel is highly likely.
For China, the stakes are clear. A stable Iran is crucial for Beijing’s Middle East strategy and economic ambitions. While some Chinese netizens advocate for Tehran’s nuclear armament, the Chinese government is unlikely to support such a move.
Instead, Beijing may continue to encourage Iran to follow its own path of economic reform and diplomatic pragmatism—a shift that could redefine Iran’s future and the stability of the region. Analyses like those of Chunshan are crucial for understanding how the dynamics between two key CRINK members continue to evolve.