I struggled to understand how to survive the nouveau-plague. My survival was complicated when it the height of the close-down my wife broke her hip. And here came a blessing.
Within minutes a nurse appeared in the ER. She explained what had happened, what is happening and what will happen and how. Within twenty minutes, everything changed. We understood how and what we were to do and when. Panic and confusion disappeared; of course, there was a crisis- but we were going to cope.
Understanding and coping go hand in hand. I want to share with you what I understand about the Corona.
Corona can kill you if: you have illnesses such as diabetes, lung disease, and you are overweight. All of which are more prevalent in the elderly. Corona kills by getting into your lungs and causing a massive reaction.
What to do?
If you are in a risk group, be more careful. Any sign of illness- do not hesitate- get maximum care in minimum time. Stay trim and healthy. Make sure that your vitamin D blood level is at least normal. The only explanation we have why countries in the Middle East do so well is Vitamin D.
Let’s use the bubble model: Imagine that you are in a strange bubble. In that bubble, there are nine people. If there is no one infected, then you are fine. If someone is infected, you will become infected. The problem is that you do not know if the fellow bubbler is contagious or if you are affected. Both of you are initially without symptoms. You become infected by droplets that can travel two meters and remain on surfaces hours. You can significantly reduce the risk by maintaining two-meter social-distancing, masks and hygiene. Basically, do not breathe or touch the bubbler’s breath. Open windows
The magic number is probably eleven. Why magic? Because, if your bubble is Corona free, then the bubble is safe. You are safe within that bubble.
‘No man is an island,’ and no man is in one bubble. When you move from one bubble to another, then you start from scratch. Worse still, you have changed the eleven-day time clock in your ‘native’ home-bubble. Each bubble has its risks and fluctuations. And even worse, some bubbles are fleeting. You pass in and out of them instantly. No matter how transient that bubble may be, it carries all the risks of a new bubble visited.
We start with one or two bubbles and wait.
We can slowly increase the number of bubbles you are in contact with. We do this slowly. We want to enter bubbles whose occupants originated from safe bubbles. We avoid transient bubbles. Even on entering the temporary bubble, we take all precautions—social distancing, masks and hygiene. Nevertheless, if done too quickly, as in a forest fire, we can re-ignite.
Do not be too complacent.
If all things were equal in time, we would reach a steady-state. A few infections passing slowly from bubble to bubble. Every infection is treated, and every contact quarantined within their own bubble. We would eventually win.All things are not equal. Seasons change, and the change takes its toll.
THE SECOND WAVE.
Why on earth do we have this entity at all? Surely it is the first wave all over again? Why are they saying it is more threatening? I imagine one stone thrown in a lake. The ripples are the waves of contacts moving across the pond.
Now resort back to the bubble model. With the first wave, every bubble was bright and clean.
In winter, things change within and without of our bubble. The bubble becomes more confined. We are closer, we are less outside and more in. We close the windows. The chances of being infected within your bubble increase. At the same time, we travel with the windows closed, we will not queue outside in the rain. The inter-bubble distance is relatively smaller. The chance of a jump from bubble to bubble increases. We cannot be sure if the Corona exists with say the common cold. If it does the ‘ability’ to spread the infected droplets increases. The second wave is not a ripple passing across the pond. It is a series of effervescent episodes, each acting as a new ripple.
The second wave is not a re-ignition; it is far worse. The only ‘encouraging’ factor is that previously infected bubbles will have immune members. They will be less liable to affect. Previously uninfected bubbles are at far higher risk than in the first wave. The threat now comes from many fronts.
We know how to cope. Nevertheless, our world has changed drastically and irreversibly. So much can and will change.
I believe for the better.
How is for another blog.