Could Libya and Syria be models for Iran?

Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear sites.Yet maybe the Iranians would take down their regime? And by that they might prevent a war with Israel.
In the war in Libya in 2011 the country quickly became divided between those loyal to Muammar al – Gaddafi and the rebels. Syria is likewise split between the supporters of the president Bashar al Assad and the opposition. As in Libya and Syria the struggle is against the leader, the elite class, and the oppressive regime. In Iran a revolt against the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his followers might occur too.

The rebels in Libya were determined to end the brutal rule of a theatrical dictator, an African Caesar who along with his family was in power since 1969 and was responsible for a Libyan dark age. The rebels in Syria wish to get rid of their oppressive dynasty, the Assad kingdom that controlled them with an iron fist since 1970. This phenomenon might occur in Iran as the last presidential elections in 2009 and the current ones proved that the regime is willing to accept only a candidate from “his family”.

The rebels in Libya included deserters and mostly civilians who volunteered to form a militia as is the case in Syria and possibly Iran. Yet it took months and bitter lessons from the battlefield before the rebels in Libya could defeat Gaddafi. The rebels in Syria have followed a similar process: turning their men into troops. They must build some kind of a military that would be strong enough to win. Lately they had some serious setbacks.

As in the case of Libya the rebels in Syria have gained access to weapons and ammunition that were seized during the battles or captured in abandoned camps and depots around the country. As in Libya the rebels in Syria, due to their lack of well trained troops, ran into difficulties operating and maintaining tanks and artillery, and have to rely on weapons that are much easier to use, as in many civil wars. The rebels therefore depend on all kinds of firearms, such as assault rifles, machine guns and rocket propelled grenades. This arsenal would be sufficient if their foe is not better armed or is not able to exploit its tanks and artillery because of Western air attacks, as it was in Libya.

Eventually in the war in Libya the rebels got rid of Gaddafi and his regime. The insurgents in Libya won with the support of Western military intervention which helped them overthrow the regime of Gaddafi. Could this repeat itself in Syria or Iran?

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About the Author
Dr. Ehud Eilam has been dealing and studying Israel’s national security for more than 25 years. He served in the Israeli military and later on he worked for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. He is now a writer and an independent researcher. He has a Ph.D and he had published five books He lives now near Boston, MA. His email: