Could Syrian history surpasses its future?

Tracing history sometimes allows us to better understand today’s events and  anticipate those that might occur later. What is happening in Syria today is not  isolated from the conflicts and instability happening around it, and no neighboring country in the greater Middle East can isolate itself from those conflicts.

Syria has a long history and is an important country in both the region and the  world. However, its modern history is full of fast-paced events that do not give an  observer a chance to grasp the full impact of an event until it is too late. For example, the nation has been ruled by approximately 36 rulers – with different names and reasons – over the past hundred years, including one king, while the longest period of rule was that of Hafez al-Assad, for 29 years.

Starting with King Faisal I who ruled in 1920 for a little over a year, 11 of his successors ruled temporarily; while two of them ruled for one day! The late Gamal Abdel Nasser assumed power when Syria joined the United Arab Republic in 1958 for nearly four years. Under the combined rule of Hafez al-Assad and his son, the Arab Socialist Baath Party ruled Syria for the last 54 years, during which many events took place inside and outside Syria. The decisions of the Syrian leadership, its questionable alliances, and how it treated its subjects are what brought it to where it is today. The entry of the Syrian armed opposition forces a month ago was also a result of the above. We must not ignore the accelerating events in Syria since 2011 at the beginning of the demonstrations, the division of the state, and the violent collective punishment that led to the end of the longest period of rule in modern Syrian history.

The above narrative is essential to establish a perspective of the events taking place in Syria. If we take into consideration the historical and current presence of the British, French, Turkish and Israelis; we also cannot ignore the Russian, Iranian and American influences in Syria and the region as a whole. All of the above establishes the fact that, despite the many reasons, the Syrian state was not stable even before the events of the Arab Spring, which became the long beginning of an end that costed the Syrian people 231,108 deaths and 14 million displaced citizens.

Personally, I have never trusted armed militias, whatever their orientation is, especially fundamentalist movements; however, the recent accelerating events have imposed a reality that must be dealt with, with all prudence. On the one hand, countries run by religious militias, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, have not been spared, but on the other hand, the steps taken by Ahmed al- Sharaa are still completely different from others. I hope I am wrong, as the Syrian people deserve continued security and stability. What al-Sharaa has done so far contradicts the mob-like approach and is in the direction of building a state of institutions, justice, and law. Contrary to what was expected from armed militias of an Islamic nature, supported by al-Sharaa’s history of jihad in his capacity on multiple ranks of militias that are considered extremists, the perception was that it would continue on the same path.

Announcing elections after four years, dissolving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and announcing, for example, changing the names of hospitals and higher education institutions to names related to Syrian regions instead of names with partisan connotations or names related to the former ruling family, to national alternatives bearing the names of Syrian cities, forms different directions and orientations than expected, hence a changed future fate of Syria. What’s not clear until now is the fundamental pillar to the next stage; that is preserving the rights of minorities, and moving towards establishing a fair judiciary system that conducts fair trials instead of assassinations, supporting armed groups, and extrajudicial liquidations, and most importantly, restricting weapons ownership to the state. Only then, citizen’s will fall through and believe in the newly imposed system that gains their trust.

Here we cannot ignore the fact that the cost of replacing the current forces with others will be more costly than that of keeping up with them and giving them a chance, which brings us back to the most important question: Will Syrian history surpasses its future and will it return as a police state, or will Ahmed al-Sharaa and his team be able to gain the trust of the Syrians with every positive step he takes? Syria is going through a difficult phase, and I hope it will be blessed by the inclusion of Syrians, all Syrians, as one, not divided by sects, orientations, and religions, to move forward towards building a homeland that translates the aspirations of all its children; men and women, Druze, Circassians, Christians , Shiites, and Sunnis.

We can only stand with them in what they aspire to and what they choose for themselves and support them for a promising future for them and for the region as a whole, as the new dawn in the Middle East is in its early stages and the days are filled with major changes, now that Trump is being inaugurated in ten days!