European Union, make Germany great again

Schengen, the end? Monday September 16 could mark a symbolic date: the beginning of the end of the European free space. Germany is now riding on its own.

The three-party coalition has decided to introduce strict border controls, in order to turn back asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. Officially, the measure is scheduled to last six months, but it is not a commitment. Austria, Poland, Denmark, Luxembourg and France are concerned. Commission President von der Leyen, herself from one of the governing parties, is concerned and skeptical. The EU’s largest country has entered into frontal dissidence with the European institution.

This decision is contrary to international law on the treatment of refugees, free movement  – within the Schengen countries_ which is one of its pillars, and the Dublin Agreement on refugees. In France, the far right Rassemblement National, with its nearly eleven million voters, has consistently called for the re-establishment of border controls. What would happen if the new French government decided to radically review its policy and adopted the German position, which is not driven by the AFD (of course not), but by the decision of the coalition? By appointing an Immigration Minister?

The What is at stake 

Germany is faced with a twofold problem, highlighted by the recent elections: coping with the growth of the far-right AFD vote, particularly with its two successes in the former East German regions of Thuringia and Saxony, which has led to tensions within the coalition, which has not emerged unscathed from these elections, with mixed results. If we were to echo the results, these control measures would not be purely coincidental.

And then there is the most critical issue for the economy and its functioning: the imperative need for Berlin to find 400,000 skilled immigrants a year to cope with its acute labor shortage and declining birth rate.

What a solution

Germany is in the process of introducing what might be described as a “new two-door migration policy”.

We have just mentioned the closing of the first door, that of illegal immigration and refugees.

The other door

Berlin has concluded an unprecedented agreement with kenian President William RUTO, known for his authoritarianism, to put it mildly. His political career has been littered with bloody incidents, most recently when he tried to tax the price of bread and other staples. This led to riots and dozens of casualties. Apart from expressing their “concern”, European leaders had no other reaction. Brought to power on September 13, 2022, he is practically the only African leader to have broken links with China, the partner of his predecessors. At the request of the United States, he agreed to send a thousand police officers to Haiti to restore some order in this gang-controlled country. At the end of May, the first African head of state in fifteen years, he was hosted at the White House and officially designated as an ally of Washington. The agreement between Berlin and Nairobi stipulates that Kenya will take back its citizens expelled from Germany.

This is very marginal for this country (but it is an example, after a collective expulsion that took place in 2022).

More importantly, the agreement reached on the immigration of Kenyan workers to Germany is one of the first official agreements on the brain drain from a Third World country to Europe’s most important country. Berlin will be “recruiting” the skilled professionals it desperately needs for its industry and services, due to its chronic labor shortage. The agreement was preceded by a full-scale test, to recruit over eight hundred bus drivers for the Länder of Schleswig Holstein (main city Kiel). To be on the safe side, the recruited drivers will have to retake their license on arrival. Germany officially has a special representative for migration, Joachim Stamp. We imagine (perhaps wrongly) that France new right driven new government will follow many of the doors opened up by its powerful neighbor, which is taking strong and controversial decisions. In the wake of these decisions, Berlin is expected to continue deporting thousands of Afghans, Syrians and other migrants.

Chancellor Scholz has signed an agreement in Uzbekistan which provides for the expulsion of Uzbek refugees (who Germany cannot integrate) and the possibility of “bringing talent” to Germany. The special representative for immigration also stressed that Uzbekistan is willing to “adapt the training” of these professionals to German requirements. “In both cases, we’re talking about qualified professionals, trained by their home country, who will be reluctant to leave once they’ve experienced Europe. The agreement also provides for the possibility of returning expelled Afghans to Uzbekistan. The brain drain is now underway. And European Union means to stop illegal immigration?

 Irregular immigration

In 2023, Berlin turned back 35,000 people. This compares with no less than 20,000 in the first half of 2024. The breakdown varies according to the border concerned. From Austria, from one year to the next, from 14% to 11% of applicants. From Poland, 57% in the first half of 2024 vs 23% in the second quarter.

The Commission’s powerlessness in the face of Berlin’s decision is obvious: its spokesman has just declared that “these controls should only be carried out if they are unquestionably necessary and proportionate … and should remain an absolute exception”. The most vehement opponents of these measures are Austria, which is very worried about having to deal with a growing number of refugees and Poland, which claims to be categorically opposed to the decision, even though it has erected a barbed-wire wall on its border with Belarus. In the Netherlands, where the far right co-governs. The later is considering following in Berlin’s footsteps. We know the Hungarian response: put refugees on buses and send them to Brussels!

European Commission in crisis, glass ceiling explodes

Meanwhile, the Commission President has postponed the presentation of the new commission. Why the postponement? It seems that the Commission is on the verge of shattering the famous glass ceiling against far-right parties. Its President is reportedly preparing to do what the French National Assembly has refused to do – so far: appoint an elected member of the Fratelli di Italia group, Rafale FITTO, to one of the four posts of Executive Vice-President. This would put the far right on an equal footing with the 2 majority EPP parties and the Renew liberals, putting an end to the most famous “ cordon sanitaire”

It should be remembered that there is already a cooperation between the far-right EKR group and the the European Parliament’s praesidium. Another problem has arisen: the President has not achieved parity between men and women in the distribution of posts. At best 40%. We have just learned of the resignation of French Commissioner Thierry Breton following a profound disagreement with Mrs von der Leyen, instantly(!) replaced by the resigning french Minister of Foreign Affairs (look for the error).  These conflicts and disagreements are weakening the heads of state who reappointed her as head of the Commission. They reflect a loss of authority.

Conclusion

Germany is very pragmatic, not bothering with moral considerations when it comes to acting in its own best interests. The EU manages more internal conflicts than it does produce solutions. Immigration remains the major burning issue. The presence of the extreme right in both governments and institutions is becoming an existential issue, as governments cannot indefinitely ignore the democratic vote of a significant proportion of their citizens. Finally, the publication of the Draghi report highlights a rather gloomy outlook, unless the EU proves capable of rethinking itself completely. Otherwise it will be the first nail in the