Flight MH370

As a former intelligence analyst, I can write from personal experience that what government agencies know is always significantly more, and different, than what media journalists speculate (“report”) to you, the public.

If the two arcs, calculated from – what they think might be – Flight MH370’s “last ping,” were anywhere near as precise as reporting suggests then why are the search areas so much larger? Moreover, how long would it take to track through both arcs and find the debris field or aircraft? No more than a few hours by air. There’s more going on here than is being reported.

Ok, pilot suicide is possible. But too many things went off with the kind of efficiency that points to extraordinary planning and well-trained execution. Pilot suicide isn’t typically so involved, complicated and well-executed. EgyptAir Flight 990 was an example of pilot suicide: work oneself into a fenzy that overrides the fear of death, then point the nose into the ocean and chant something to take your mind off of the impending consequences. All indications are that the disappearance of Flight MH370 was nothing like this.

If this is not a pilot suicide – and we must not assume pilot suicide before wreckage is found, identified and investigated – then something much more sinister is going on, which would explain why governments are being so closed-mouthed, or disinformative, about what is going on. Vague searches seem to be continuing to distract attention from the more sinister alternative: that the disappearance is a well-planned air piracy.

Air piracy raises a number of alarms. What is the fate of the passengers? Will they be held hostage somewhere for some kind of ransom? Or is the aircraft itself the target? No ransom and not even a trace of the aircraft strongly suggests the latter; and if the aircraft was itself the object of this air piracy, what were the options for the pilots of MH370 and how does that bode for us in Israel?

Consulting a map of the south-eastern hemisphere shows that the fuel limitation approaches tantalizingly close to two rather nefarious and tempting destinations along the western course that the aircraft was last known to have taken. There has been much speculation about the amount of fuel on-board and the resulting range of the aircraft. But has anyone checked the records to see if additional fuel may have nefariously been added?

Even if the aircraft received only the routine extra fuel for safety, one destination that may have been at the edge of their range is a small island of Yemen (Socotra) near the coast of Somalia (better, if fuel permitted, Somalia itself). Graduating from a national mission of ocean piracy to air piracy doesn’t seem to me a great stretch. Ok, the Somalis may not typically be that sophisticated, but they seem to be friends with Iran.

Another destination at the edge of their fuel limitation that may have been tempting to them could be the southern tip of Iran. One of the mysteries concerns Iranian passengers that Interpol reported was traveling with stolen passports obtained on the black-market in an island (Phuket) of southern Thailand. This also would indicate more intricate, probably professional, planning, preparation and, probably, cooperation and coordination.

Questions Israel should be asking include: could the 777 be disguised to fool countries between Israel and Somalia or Iran, respectively, into thinking it was a routine passenger flight, authorizing them to fly over their countries and enabling terrorists to strike Israel? Iran has frequently threatened Israel and publicly declared that they “have their finger on the trigger against Israel.”

What are various ways that a disguised 777 might be used to carry out a terrorist mission? Perhaps, while the pirated 777 sits on the ground in some concealed hanger, making a real jet full of passengers behave like a threatening disguised 777 to cause Israel to mistakenly shoot down the jet full of passengers? Or, using repeated threat behavior in passenger flights, “train” the Israeli military to hold back on the trigger, fearing such an accidental catastrophe, thereby allowing a terrorist 777 too close to stop?

When all else has failed, call in the American military NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) to help. After all, every year without fail they find a sleigh that has no electronics on board, drawn by 8 flying reindeer that don’t answer pings. Surely, they can find a passenger jet?