From “The Art of the Deal” to the Art of the Squeeze for U.S. Foreign Policy

Donald Trump is back in the White House, and so is his transactional, hardball approach to diplomacy. His first term shifted American foreign policy from integrative—where deals were built on mutual gains—to distributive, where the goal was to extract maximum advantage at the expense of others. Now, with a second chance to reshape global affairs, Trump’s return signals a full embrace of the Art of the Deal doctrine: allies must pay up, adversaries must capitulate, and America will only engage when there’s something tangible to win.

But does a real estate mogul’s playbook make for good statecraft? Or has America’s approach to global leadership been permanently reduced to a series of one-off transactions, where long-term strategy is sacrificed for short-term tactical wins?

Allies Beware: The Cost of Partnership Just Went Up

Trump’s first term saw him repeatedly threaten to withdraw from NATO, demand that European allies “pay their fair share,” and approach military alliances as protection rackets rather than strategic partnerships. With his return, allies are bracing for a continuation—and likely escalation—of these tactics.

• NATO Under Pressure – Trump has already revived his threats that NATO allies must meet spending targets or else. His past remarks hint at an even more aggressive stance: if they don’t pay, the U.S. might not defend them. This rhetoric emboldens adversaries like Russia while undermining the credibility of collective security.
• Trade Deals as Extortion – The Trump administration has signaled it will revisit trade agreements, pushing for more aggressive terms under the “America First” agenda. Expect new tariffs, renewed friction with the EU and Canada, and an unpredictable stance on U.S.-China relations.
• Middle East Gambits – Trump takes credit for the Abraham Accords but now faces a region destabilized by ongoing conflicts. His previous transactional approach—offering Gulf nations military deals in exchange for diplomatic normalization—will likely return, but without a coherent strategy for regional stability.

The “Art” of Maximum Pressure: Adversaries Take Note

If Trump’s first term taught world leaders anything, it’s that his foreign policy operates like a hostile takeover—escalate, apply pressure, and expect the other side to fold. But history has shown that this often backfires.

• China Won’t Back Down – The U.S.-China trade war is likely to escalate, with tariffs returning in full force and decoupling accelerating. However, China has adapted, diversifying trade partnerships and strengthening ties with Global South economies. Trump’s belief that he can “win” this battle through economic pain alone ignores China’s long-term resilience.
• Russia’s Wild Card – Currently unfolding is Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin that remains a wildcard. Will he push for an isolationist stance on Ukraine, cutting military aid and forcing Kyiv to negotiate? Or will he attempt his own version of a “better deal” with Moscow? Either way, European leaders are already exploring defense strategies that don’t rely on the U.S. [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/ukraine-agrees-to-minerals-deal-terms-with-us/104982856]
• Iran and North Korea: More Bluster, Less Strategy – Trump’s previous maximum pressure campaigns against Tehran and Pyongyang yielded little beyond threats and counter-threats. Now, with Iran’s nuclear program more advanced and North Korea more belligerent, Trump’s second-term approach—likely more sanctions, more threats, and fewer negotiations—risks making things worse.

The Costs of Trump’s Deal-Maker Diplomacy

The problem with Trump’s foreign policy is that international relations aren’t business transactions. While pressure tactics can work in the short term, they don’t build lasting relationships or global stability.

• Soft Power Decline – America’s credibility as a reliable partner continues to erode. Countries are increasingly skeptical of U.S. commitments, knowing that Trump (or a future leader like him) could reverse agreements overnight.
• China and Russia Filling the Void – The more Trump retreats into transactional, unpredictable diplomacy, the more space he leaves for Beijing and Moscow to expand their influence. The BRICS nations are already forging new economic and political alliances, creating a world less dependent on U.S. leadership.
• A Fractured Western Alliance – Europe, once America’s closest ally, is actively planning for a future where Washington is no longer the anchor of Western security. Trump’s second term could accelerate defense independence efforts in the EU, shifting the balance of power in ways that are irreversible.

What Happens Next?

With Trump back in charge, expect diplomacy to become a ruthless negotiation table rather than a strategic chessboard. Deals will be made, but often at the cost of long-term stability. Allies will be tested, adversaries will be provoked, and global trust in America’s leadership will continue to decline.

The real question is: does Trump’s America want to be a negotiator—or a leader? Because in foreign policy, the two are not the same.