Germany at the Polls: What’s at Stake for Israel?
As Germany gears up for a crucial federal election, the political scene is evolving, with major implications for both domestic and international matters. Two months after the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s center-left coalition—comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP)—polls indicate that a new chancellor will take office this year. While much of the international media spotlight is on the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), it is Friedrich Merz who currently leads the pack. Expected to secure around 30% of the vote, Merz faces the challenge of forming a new government in a country that has increasingly leaned to the right in recent years. But who is Friedrich Merz, what are his beliefs, and how might his election affect German-Israeli relations?
Manager Merz
The 69-year-old politician first gained attention in the early 2000s as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentary group. After losing an internal power struggle to Angela Merkel, he transitioned to the private sector, taking roles on the supervisory boards of major companies like BASF, Commerzbank, and most notably, BlackRock. While his supporters praise his business expertise, critics raise concerns about his close connections to the financial sector, labeling him “BlackRock-Merz”. But who is Friedrich Merz — and what are his policy proposals?
Bring Germany Back: A Return to Stability
Whereas Donald Trump’s campaign theme is centered on “Make America Great Again”, Friedrich Merz’s political vision can be encapsulated as “Bring Germany Back.” Unlike Trump, however, Merz does not identify as a populist who aims to disrupt Germany’s global standing. Instead, he seeks to restore economic stability and industrial strength to levels that they experienced a few decades ago, during an era when German manufacturing thrived and the “Made in Germany” brand was held in high esteem globally. Additionally, his policy framework includes a more stringent approach to immigration, signaling a departure from the open border policies adopted by the Merkel and Scholz administrations. As an old-school conservative, Merz advocates economic pragmatism and traditional societal values.
What Will Change for Israel?
In contrast to the United States, the Israel-Hamas conflict has not emerged as a significant campaign topic in Germany. This is because the established political parties in Germany share a fundamental consensus regarding the nation’s special relationship with Israel, referred to as “Staatsräson” (reason of state). Furthermore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has overshadowed discussions around national security in Germany because of its geographical closeness and the economic implications it entails for the country.
Since October 7th, Merz has made two visits to Israel to reaffirm his support for Israel’s right to self-defense. He has criticized the Scholz government for its inadequate response to antisemitic rhetoric and violence occurring at pro-Palestinian demonstrations in various German cities. Nevertheless, he remains aligned with the broader European consensus by endorsing a two-state solution while urging Israel to act responsibly during its military activities. Should he be elected, Merz would likely require cooperation with the SPD or the Greens, both of which uphold the current state of German-Israeli relations, with the Greens possibly being more critical of Israel than Scholz’s SPD.
Nevertheless, there are critical areas where Merz’s leadership could prompt notable changes:
- Arms Deliveries: In recent years, Germany has emerged as Israel’s second-largest supplier of arms. However, media reports from September 2024 indicated that the German government had partially blocked weapon deliveries. Merz has vowed to remove these restrictions, guaranteeing ongoing military assistance for Israel.
- A Tougher Stance on Iran: Although direct military intervention is ruled out, Merz has indicated a more confrontational policy towards Iran. He endorses stricter sanctions and has shown diplomatic support for Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian sites in April 2024.
- Combating Antisemitism in Germany: Merz has positioned himself as a staunch critic of antisemitic sentiments noticed within certain segments of Germany’s Arab and Muslim communities. He advocates for strong legal action against antisemitic hate speech and has proposed deportation for immigrants convicted of antisemitic offenses.
Conclusion
Although Friedrich Merz does not completely align with every Israeli policy perspective, his possible chancellorship could serve Israel by easing some of the diplomatic pressures imposed by the EU and neighboring European nations. In general, the essential nature of Germany’s relationship with Israel is unlikely to see radical transformation. Public and political support for Israel remains stable, with parties that promote a significantly more critical foreign policy toward Israel expected to constitute only about 10% of the Bundestag.