How to Deescalate the Middle East Power Keg
On October 7, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen, and the other Iranian proxies will have been going on for a year. Israel continues in its ground offensive in Lebanon to make the north of Israel safe for its evacuated residents to return to their homes. Most recently, on October 1, Iran fired some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, signaling yet another escalation. Furthermore, Iran has threatened a further direct attack on Israel, if Israel retaliates. The United States, neighboring Arab countries, and the United Nations have been expressing concern about this escalation, which could lead to an all-out regional war. Many parties are urging Israel to exercise restraint and are calling for a ceasefire.
A ceasefire is certainly a worthy goal to pursue and within Israel’s interests. The knotty question is, under what conditions should a ceasefire be made: Given that Israel is the one under attack, the demand for an unconditional ceasefire under the current circumstances is misguided and destabilizing. However, if Israel’s neighbors, along with pro-Palestinian and pro-Lebanese supporters, as well as other interested parties, are genuinely committed to achieving a ceasefire that will bring calm to the region, I believe that there is a straightforward ceasefire solution.
- Ending the Iranian-Israeli Confrontation:
In exchange for Israel’s commitment not to retaliate, Iran should declare that it will halt its military and financial support for Hezbollah. - The Conflict Between Hezbollah and Israel:
Since October 8, Hezbollah has stated that a ceasefire on their part is contingent upon a ceasefire in Gaza. In this context, to do so, Hezbollah and Iran could pressure Hamas to unconditionally release the hostages, desist from firing on Israeli cities, and lay down their arms. They should further also agree to the establishment of a non-Hamas, non-Israeli governing body to administer Gaza for an interim period and meet Israel’s security needs. Once both sides sign this commitment, Israel would withdraw its forces, to be replaced by the agreed-upon governing body. - Arab-Israeli Reconciliation in the Middle East and the Palestinian Issue:
The 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, as well as between Israel and Bahrain, marked a significant step toward reducing tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Other countries in the region were also poised to join this agreement. However, this momentum was disrupted by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, which some believe was timed to undermine this normalization process. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has persisted for decades and is complex and difficult to resolve. It seems logical to presume that a Middle East where Israel has normalized relations with its neighboring Arab countries could create a more favorable and conducive environment for eventual Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation. Therefore, this process should be restarted.
A negotiated arrangement as described above, and agreed upon by all parties could easily lead to an immediate cessation of hostilities in the region. Israel’s acceptance of such an arrangement would signal that it has no expansionist intentions and is focused solely on protecting its sovereignty.
Similarly, a commitment from pro-Palestinian, Hezbollah, and Iranian factions would show that they prioritize the well-being of the people in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran over their desire to undermine Israel at any cost.
In contrast, given that Israel has no intention of capitulating, ongoing efforts to destroy it will only result in further devastation in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and beyond and potentially escalate the present conflict further.