Rami Dabbas
Rami Dabbas
Writer & Political Analyst

Israel and Iran’s Regional Ambition Threat

Israel did not succeed in thwarting the Vienna talks, which began on April 6 to revive the nuclear agreement between Tehran, America. The major European countries, after the attempts by Israel to pressure the new American administration, through which it demanded not to reduce the pressure on Tehran and refrain from returning to The nuclear agreement, however, Israel was shocked by great disappointment, after progress in many of the outstanding issues during the ongoing talks.

Pacification, not reconciliation, is the most appropriate title to describe the relationship between Israel and Iran now, as an alternative to confrontation and escalation if the major countries signed an agreement with Tehran.

The Vienna talks to revive the nuclear agreement are witnessing great progress, while things are going on the right track, but this does not mean that the two sides have reached a final agreement; I add that Iran wants to see practical results in the talks. As Washington’s implementation of the terms of the nuclear deal, Vienna, especially the lifting of the sanctions imposed on it.

Israeli officials have expected that the ongoing negotiations in Vienna will lead to the United States returning to the 2015 nuclear deal, while concern looms over the Israeli government about the possibility of Washington returning to the nuclear agreement, while Israel is still fighting to prevent the Biden administration from reaching any agreement With Iran.

American discontent with Israel

The American administration conveyed a message to the Israeli government, expressing its dissatisfaction with the Israeli attacks against Iranian targets, in parallel with the start of an indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran in Vienna with the mediation of European countries. At the same time, Israel, which sought to thwart the talks, appears not satisfied with the progress in the negotiations, Which makes Israel alone in the face of Iran.

According to a report issued by the “Institute for National Security” in Israel; “Despite the desire of both sides in Washington and Tehran to reach such an agreement, the road there is full of obstacles, in addition to that Iran will face elections on June 18th, and the results of which may change the course of the talks leading to their collapse.”

Whereas, according to all indications, the United States is determined to continue diplomatic talks to sign a new agreement, and this is the goal that Joe Biden set upon taking office and that the agreement is close and maybe crystallized within weeks.

An Iranian response to Israel

The accumulation of Israeli attacks may oblige Iran to respond to it now or later, as at the same time there is a strategic goal that the Iranian leadership insists on achieving, which is an American return to the nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran and ensuring an agreement that does not place stringent restrictions on the nuclear program.

Yediot Aharonot newspaper said, “The security cabinet in Israel has expressed its deep dissatisfaction with the ongoing negotiations in Vienna,” considering the concessions offered by the Americans that exceeded what Iran wanted to reach an agreement at any price. At the same time, Iran became reassured that at the end of the day, an agreement will be reached, and every effort will be made to achieve the greatest possible accomplishments. ”

“Israel Hayom” newspaper said: “The Israeli government is facing great criticism about its policies on the Iranian issue, and it is preferable to put forward an alternative by adopting a policy of” sit down and do nothing, “in the hope that the Iranian threat will pass by itself, or that Washington will address it on behalf of Israel. While it is worth admitting that the Israeli policy in recent decades has succeeded in delaying Iran’s path towards nuclear and curbing Tehran’s positioning in Syria, the talk is about curbing, not a complete halt.

Impact on negotiations

The former head of the Atomic Energy Commission in Israel, Gideon Frank, called on Tel Aviv to focus on attempts to influence the US positions on the ongoing negotiations, and not to establish facts on the ground, as Frank believes; Iran’s raising of uranium enrichment rate to the level of 60 percent does not mean that Iran has reached the nuclear bomb, as access to it requires the operation of a large number of new-style centrifuges.

In this context, Israel is not alone, and it has never been alone in confronting Iran. Still, it plays a big role in harmony and harmony with conservative forces in the West to confront Iran. Israel has its own and regional angle to look at Iran, unlike the global view of the United States.

And also that Israel always seeks to exaggerate and exaggerate the Iranian nuclear threat, to evade any political entitlements towards the Palestinian cause, as it seeks to keep the security and military issue tyrannical and at the forefront of the Middle East files, as well as to bring more aid and military and financial support, and overlook its serious violations For Palestinian rights, and its continued occupation of the Palestinian lands.

Israeli attacks continue

Israel cannot alone take strategic decisions towards Iran without referring to America. It will not risk its relations and position with the United States, its highest capital. If Washington signs an agreement with Tehran, then Israel will most likely continue its attacks and harassment against Iran, but within mutually agreed margins With the United States, any qualitative and cyber-security strikes, without getting involved in an open confrontation.

Likewise, Israel’s problem with Iran is not in nuclear capabilities and nuclear weapons but rather in Iran’s ambition to be an influential regional power in the region, thus competing with Israel over its vital field. Therefore, Israel wants to coexist with a peaceful and weak Arab and Islamic environment and is dependent on the West. Therefore, This ocean coexists with Israel within normal relations, and Israel will have a place of military and technological leadership.

Also, Israel’s problem with Iran is not about nuclear capabilities and nuclear weapons but rather Iran’s ambition to be an influential regional power.

As for Iran’s attempts to secretly develop its nuclear weapons, if it signs an agreement with America within the ongoing talks in Vienna, it is unlikely that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. If Tehran signs the agreement, all its activities will be under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in addition to that. Iran is still very far from that, whether in terms of the proportion of uranium enrichment and the quantities or the nature and quality of centrifuges.

In addition, the Hebrew newspaper “Maariv” reported; Israel is facing difficulties in influencing the Biden administration regarding its position on the nuclear agreement with Iran, in addition to the fact that there is Israeli resentment and concern with Washington over the recent revelation of the Israeli role in striking the Iranian ship “Saviz,” and the revelation that Israel has targeted dozens of Iranian ships at sea Since 2019.

American-Israeli opposition

That the Israeli position contrasts greatly with the Biden administration’s position on the Iranian nuclear file, in light of Israel’s desire that there is no agreement or solutions to the nuclear problem by negotiation, due to considerations that have political, not security and military dimensions, given that the Iranian nuclear file is a card that has been invested by Israel, This is to divert the course of the conflict in the region.

Whereas, America will force Israel to prevent strikes against Iranian targets without coordinating with them, in light of America’s desire to calm the situation in the Middle East and prevent any military clash, because this exposes American interests in the region to danger, but America will understand some of the steps that Israel will take.  Especially against the Iranian positioning in Syria.

What worries Israel about the results of the talks is the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the improvement of its economic conditions. The improvement in the economic situation will positively affect Iran’s allies, which will be harmful after Iran’s return to provide generous support to the resistance movements, especially in Lebanon and Palestine. This support will strengthen the strength of the military resistance. In the face of Israel, after having been back for years due to the sanctions imposed on Iran.

Historical relations

Israel and America have deep and historical relations. Still, there are differences over their views on the Iranian nuclear file, and these differences cannot reach the point of a rupture between the two sides. Still, the Biden administration has become concerned about Tehran raising the level of uranium enrichment to the level of 60 percent. And America believes that Iran is close to using uranium in military industries, so the treatment lies in negotiations, not boycotting and blocking.

Likewise, calm, not reconciliation, is the most appropriate title to describe the relationship between Israel and Iran now, as an alternative to confrontation and escalation if the major countries in Europe and America signed an agreement with Tehran, especially since many regional issues are still burning, so escalation and confrontation are not in anyone’s interest. And that is with the multiplicity and widening of the points of friction between Iran and Israel.