Israel at BRICS: India’s Modi may be the deciding factor

Israel-Hamas war will be a key topic at the BRICS summit hosted in Russia, especially given new member Iran being represented by its new President Masoud Pezeshkian. Despite many members harboring an anti-Israel bias and agenda, India and its Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be key to defending Israel’s interest in the bloc long term.

Russia is hosting 22 world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping for the BRICS summit in Kazan from October 22-24, 2024. The BRICS bloc, representing 45% of the global population and 35% of the world’s economy, is set to tackle significant geopolitical and economic issues. Leaders from major emerging economies such as Russia, China, India, and South Africa, as well as newer members like Iran and Egypt, are expected to participate. PLO President  Mahmoud Abbas is also participating on the invitation of host Russian President Vladimir Putin accompanied by Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization Hussein al-Sheikh, Chief Justice of Palestine, Presidential Advisor for Religious Affairs and Islamic Relations Mahmoud al-Habbash, Presidential Advisor for Diplomatic Affairs Majdi al-Khalidi, and Palestinian Ambassador to Russia Abdul Hafeez Nofal.

The summit comes amid global speculation that the Ukraine conflict and Putin’s international arrest warrant might isolate him. However, the BRICS grouping, which initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded in recent years, adding Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, seeking to challenge the Western-dominated world order with over 32 countries participating.

Russia and South Africa have had notably anti-Israel agendas. South Africa has aggressively pursued Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). India, ahead of the summit, has called for a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and expressed concern over the potential escalation in the region. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has conducted bilateral talks with several leaders, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, focusing on regional tensions, including the situation in Gaza, and potential solutions to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading. Ahead of the bilateral meeting, Modi’s first with Pezeshkian, India had demanded the release of all hostages held by Hamas. 

During the bilateral meeting in Kazan, Modi and Pezeshkian discussed India’s role in developing Iran’s Chabahar port, regional connectivity projects, and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. The meeting highlighted the importance of peace and stability in the region and explored collaborative efforts through multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS.

China’s role in the Middle East, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, is also under scrutiny. Recent remarks on the commemoration of the Oct 7th attacks from Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have emphasized the need to balance the rights of Palestinians with Israel’s security concerns, reflecting China’s change in direction on the eve of the BRICS summit. Previously China had ignored Israel’s security concerns and gathered various palestinian groups to launch a “Beijing declaration” which supported Hamas and the Palestinian perspective without condemning the violence against Israel on Oct. 7th.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s support for Iran’s efforts to maintain peace signals Beijing’s alignment with Tehran.

While India’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict diverges from most BRICS members, this division is not expected to significantly impact the summit. However, it may shape longer-term dynamics, particularly regarding leadership in the Global South. In the latest vote at the U.N. General Assembly on a resolution calling for the end to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, India and Ethiopia were the only two BRICS countries that abstained, while all others were for the resolution. Despite India’s official commitment to a two state solution, it has not hesitated in condemning terrorism and Hamas’s brutal attack. India has stood by Israel and is considered one of its strongest ally’s. 

The Palestinian Authority is expected to apply for BRICS membership at the summit. Meeting with the media on the eve of the summit host Russian President Vladmir Putin said o that the war in the Gaza Strip must end with the establishment of a “full-fledged” Palestinian State, urging the Middle East Quartet to be reactivated in order to resume mediation efforts in the region.

“The primary solution to the Palestinian problem is the establishment of a fully-fledged Palestinian State. The Russian side has upheld this position since the Soviet era,” he remarked during a meeting with BRICS media managers in Moscow.

Putin stressed reactivating the Middle East Quartet, a group of international organizations that includes the UN, US, UN and Russia, to resume efforts to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and initiate a peace process.