Israel’s strategic reality in 5785

Long-term demographic and geostrategic trends are eroding support for Israel in the Western world. Conversely, economic interests and the existential threat posed by an expansionist Shiite Iran favor a historic rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab nations. The Palestinian issue, which for decades obstructed relations with the Arab & Muslim world, now poses a greater threat to Israeli interests in the Western world. For the Palestinian issue to be resolved in Israel’s favor, it must convince the Saudi leadership of its commitment to toppling the Ayatollah regime in Iran. Failure to do so will jeopardize the survival of Zionism.

1. Long-term dynamics eroding Israel’s position

1.1 Decline of American Jewry

In the last two decades, the proportion of Jews in the US population has decreased from 2.1% to 1.8%. This decline is even more pronounced among future elites. The percentage of Jewish undergraduates at Yale and Harvard has declined from 20%[1] and 16%[2] in 2000, to 12%[3] and 6%[4] respectively in 2023. This means fewer future American leaders will have an emotional or religious bond to Israel, and even fewer will understand these bonds and the importance of Israel for the Jewish people. In addition, the political careers of pro-Israel Jewish politicians will be thwarted by preference for conservative Christians on the right and hostility to Zionist Jews on the left.

1.2 Decline of Western religiosity and Zionist Evangelical enthusiasm

• The percentage of Americans viewing the Bible as the “literal word of God” dropped from 40% to 20% over the last four decades.[5] In addition, the percentage of Americans identifying as Christians declined from 85%[6] to 60-65%[7]. Americans’ faith in God’s promises to Abraham and the Children of Israel is weakening.
• In France, those identifying as Catholic fell from 81% in 1986 to 47% in 2020. Similarly, church weddings in Germany dropped from 80% in 1953 to just 18% in 2019[8].
• Support for Israel among young evangelicals slumped from 75% to 34% between 2018 and 2021[9]. Evangelical voters are the most numerous pro-Israel block, making this trend, if sustained, alarming.

1.3 Decline of Holocaust Remembrance

• The number of Holocaust-themed movies produced in the US decreased from 14 in the 1980s to 7 in the 2010s[10], indicating a steep decline in Holocaust interest and awareness.[11]
• The Holocaust and antisemitism are no longer seen as justifications for Zionism. Events since October 7th suggest that Jewish national sovereignty is increasingly viewed as justifying antisemitism and genocide calls against Jews.
• Comparing Zionism with Nazism and Israel with the Third Reich is becoming more common and accepted in polite society.[12]

1.4 Decline of the West’s “Westernness”

• The non-Hispanic white population in the USA is projected to decrease from 58.9% in 2022 to 44.9% in 2060[13].
• By 2050, Muslims will make up 10-15% of the population in high immigration countries like Germany, France, and the UK, with even higher percentages among younger cohorts.[14]
• The rise of demographic groups hostile to Zionism influences US and European policy towards Israel.
• Just as the enfranchisement of African-Americans drew America away from its traditional allegiance to WASP values, growing Islamic and non-white populations in Western Europe and America will shift political and intellectual discourse away from a classical liberal European ethos, at the expense of Jewish-Israeli interests.
• Populist right-wing politicians in Europe and Latin America, despite their pro-Israel rhetoric, usually fail to deliver on promises to support Israel due to business interests in the Arab & Muslim world and more popular foreign policy decisions.

1.5 Decline of the Middle East as a US Foreign Policy priority

• China’s rising hegemony in Asia and the Pacific will lead to a diversion of American political and military interests/resources from the Middle East to East Asia.
• The growing importance of renewable energy sources and further success of Iran’s nuclear ambitions will accelerate American disengagement from the Middle East.
• China will use its economic and military influence to court Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Anti-Israel rhetoric will be used to distract the Muslim world from China’s atrocities in Xinjiang and spread antisemitism that undermines Western democracies.

2. Long-term dynamics strengthening Israel’s positions

2.1 Demographic Shifts and the Declining Importance of Fossil Fuels

As global populations grow, and reliance on fossil fuels diminishes due to climate change and renewable energy initiatives, the traditional economic foundations of Israel’s Arab neighbors are being undermined. Oil-rich nations that once thrived on fossil fuel exports are now facing a future where these resources are less valuable. In contrast, Israel’s economy, driven by technological innovation and a highly educated workforce, has diversified and thrived in industries like cybersecurity, agriculture, and clean energy. Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf, increasingly recognize that their long-term survival depends on emulating Israel’s successes in these sectors, from water management to high-tech development. This creates an incentive for cooperation and normalization with Israel, as Arab nations seek models of sustainable growth beyond oil.

2.2 Hardliner Islamic Attitudes: A Barrier for the Gulf States

The political and economic interests of Gulf States, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have evolved in recent decades, as they seek modernization and integration into the global economy. However, hardline Islamic ideologies, which fuel resistance to Israel and promote radicalism, are increasingly seen as detrimental to this progress. For these nations, maintaining stability and fostering economic growth means confronting extremist ideologies, which often oppose peace with Israel. By aligning more closely with Israel, Gulf leaders can distance themselves from these radical factions and position themselves as moderate, forward-thinking nations on the world stage. This pragmatism opens the door to peace and security cooperation with Israel, which is viewed as an ally in countering extremism.

2.3 Normalization as a Win-Win Proposition: The Example of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE

The normalization agreements between Israel and countries like Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE under the Abraham Accords illustrate the tangible benefits of diplomatic and economic cooperation with Israel. These countries have seen economic growth, technological transfer, and increased security collaboration with Israel, creating a win-win situation. The success of these agreements serves as a powerful example for other nations in the region, demonstrating that normalization is not a zero-sum game but rather a pathway to mutual prosperity. For Israel, these relationships enhance its security and economic standing in the region, while for the Arab states involved, partnerships with Israel offer opportunities for diversification, modernization, and access to Israeli technology and innovation.

2.4 A Nuclear Iran: A Common Threat

Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities poses an existential threat to regional stability, particularly to Sunni Arab states and Israel. The potential for a nuclear-armed Iran exacerbates the security concerns of its neighbors, driving them to seek stronger military alliances. Israel, with its advanced military technology and intelligence capabilities, has become an indispensable partner in countering the Iranian threat. Nations that might have once been hostile to Israel are now reconsidering their positions, realizing that collaboration with Israel is essential for their survival in the face of Iranian aggression. This convergence of security interests is likely to deepen military cooperation between Israel and its neighbors, further solidifying Israel’s strategic position in the region.

2.5 The US Retreat and Israel as a Guardian of Sunni Arab States

As the United States shifts its focus away from the Middle East and reduces its military presence in the region, Sunni Arab states are increasingly looking for new guarantors of their security. Israel, with its robust military, advanced technology, and proven capability to defend its borders and deter threats, is emerging as a key player in this new regional order. The absence of direct US intervention makes Israel a natural ally for Gulf states, particularly in countering Iranian influence and maintaining regional stability. This new dynamic positions Israel not just as a regional power, but as a protector and partner for Sunni Arab states

3. Pre- and post-October 7th dynamics

Before October 7th, Israel was close to signing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia not conditioned on a Palestinian state. After October 7th, any such agreement will need to involve this state for the following reasons:

• October 7th greatly weakened Israel’s bargaining position, given the humiliation Hamas inflicted on the IDF and Israeli intelligence services, and the failure of both to secure Israel’s military objectives after over 10 months of war.
• Saudi Arabia will demand a Palestinian state to show that it can match the “accomplishments” of Hamas. Doing so is essential for Saudi Arabia’s prestige, leadership status and moral authority in the Islamic world.
• Saudi Arabia’s need to carefully weigh and balance security, economic, and military interests with its role and duties as the Custodian of Islam’s holiest sites is hard to overestimate. This necessitates securing symbolic victories like the ‘liberation of Al-Aqsa’ and the establishment of a Palestinian state in order to provide Islamic sanction and legitimacy to the Jewish State it recognizes, to the Saudi royal family, and especially to the Crown Prince.

4. A normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia

To secure a normalization agreement, Israel must now accept a Palestinian state in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and also provide security guarantees to Saudi Arabia. The larger these security guarantees, the smaller Saudi demands regarding Palestine. An Israeli commitment to eliminating the Iranian threat will be reciprocated with active Saudi support for peace and normalization between Israel and OIC member states.

The only Arab peace proposal that doesn’t threaten the existence of Israel as a secure Jewish and democratic state is the homonymous peace plan of Professor Mohammed Dajani Daoudi. Professor Dajani’s elegantly symmetric plan can be viewed here: https://www.dajanipeaceplan.org/

The most interesting aspect of the peace from a Zionist viewpoint is that it calls for Palestinians to officially recognize the Land of Israel as the homeland of the Jewish People and for Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria to reside as an autonomous minority with dual-citizenship in an independent Palestinian state. By doing so, the plan disavows anti-Zionism and explicitly renounces the paradigm of peace in exchange for Judenrein territories characterizing previous agreements between Israel and Arab neighbors.

The plan is so fair to Jewish and Israeli interests, that a Palestinian Authority adviser publicly labelled it, “even worse than Trump’s plan.”[15]

5. A Better Alternative?

The survival of the Jewish State hinges on ending the Ayatollahs’ reign in Iran. Saudi Arabia’s readiness to support peace with Israel depends on Israel providing the security guarantees the White House and US Senate refuse to provide. These guarantees include Israel’s willingness to use, if necessary, its most destructive weapons against Iran, signaling to Saudi Arabia that it can fully rely on Israel for its security.

This article makes a lucid case for the gravity of the existential threat posed by a nuclear Iran. The author nevertheless omitted two critical points:

If Iran successfully strikes Israel with nuclear weapons, Israel will be destroyed before being able to retaliate.

Since any Israeli retaliation killing millions of Iranians exposes the Jewish Diaspora to the global wrath of Muslims, Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) does not deter Iranian nuclear aggression. There is a very high likelihood that the destruction will be one-sided rather than mutual, since Israel’s non-retaliation will allow the security and survival of surviving Jewish communities outside of Israel.

To resuscitate hopes for peace in the Middle East, the Prime Minister of Israel and the 50+ OIC leaders should meet in Jerusalem and sign MOUs formalizing their intentions to sign comprehensive peace and normalization agreements and accepting the Dajani Peace Plan.

There is the hopeful possibility that Iran will welcome the Dajani Peace Plan in exchange for a negotiated return to the community of civilized nations. Nevertheless, given the enormous energies expended by the Ayatollahs in erasing Zionism from the pages of history (over US$1 trillion in cumulative direct and indirect wealth lost due to international sanctions), it is more likely that Iran, together with its proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, will do everything it can to derail peace between Israel and OIC member states.

A Hezbollah barrage of missiles against Israel could indeed derail a negotiated peace process. Many OIC leaders will renege on the pledges made in Jerusalem if footage of widespread death and destruction in Israel accompanies harrowing scenes of Muslim women and children ‘martyred’ by the IDF in Tyro, Sidon, and Beirut.

Israeli retaliation against Lebanon alone would be misguided. If Iran were to inflict destruction in Israel via Hezbollah in the wake of global jubilation involving peace agreements between the Arab world and Israel in Jerusalem, the Jewish State will have the moral legitimacy and the backing of Sunni member states of the OIC to honor its unwritten commitment to the House of Saud.

The ruin of a remote area as a warning, and subsequently, that of a Khomeinist stronghold like Qom, will be a price worth paying to topple the Ayatollahs and ensure that Israel, Iran, and the entire Middle East thrive in the coming decades. Once the Middle East is ridden from the Ayatollahs and the terrorist proxies they fund, and Saudi Arabia’s leaders know that Israel stands at its side, the peace agreement ultimately signed between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will be based on the most favorable interpretation of Professor Dajani’s peace plan.

A Sustainable Zionist Future

Events since October 7th highlight the unresolved Palestinian issue as a serious threat to the survival of Zionism and the Jewish people worldwide. As Western support for Israel wanes, it is crucial to recognize that maintaining the status quo is more dangerous than crafting and carefully implementing a just peace agreement. Judicious ruthlessness paired with intelligent compromises are essential for Israel’s survival.

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[1] https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-vanishing-ivy-league-jew

[2] https://jewishchronicle.timesofisrael.com/is-harvard-which-once-capped-the-number-of-jews-doing-the-same-to-asians/

[3] https://www.insidehighered.com/news/admissions/2023/05/08/jewish-student-enrollment-down-many-ivies

[4] https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/community/articles/gatecrashers-podcast-episode-8-harvard-university-jews-ivy-league

[5] https://news.gallup.com/poll/394262/fewer-bible-literal-word-god.aspx

[6] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2003/11/05/part-8-religion-in-american-life/

[7] https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pew-research-centers-american-trends-panel/

[8] https://www.premierchristianity.com/news-analysis/explained-is-church-attendance-falling-in-europe/15869.article

[9] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/as-israel-increasingly-relies-on-us-evangelicals-for-support-younger-ones-are-walking-away-what-polls-show/

[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Holocaust_films

[11] The robust overall number of global Holocaust-themed Holocaust movies numbers is primarily owed to state-subsidized movie productions in European countries.

[12] Rosenfeld A. et al. (2019) Anti-Zionism and Antisemitism: The Dynamics of Delegitimization Bloomington: Indiana University Press

[13] https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-look-like-by-2100/

[14] https://newhumanist.org.uk/articles/2267/battle-of-the-babies

[15] https://www.facebook.com/groups/1122732534578591