Israel’s Syria Strategy: A Security Imperative or a Risky Power Play?
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has triggered a seismic shift in the Middle East. With Syria plunged into chaos, Israel has moved aggressively to shape the new geopolitical reality, launching a military campaign aimed at eliminating security threats and asserting regional dominance. While the Israeli government insists its actions are defensive, the scale and scope of its intervention suggest a far more ambitious agenda—one that could reshape the balance of power in the region, but also entangle Israel in a prolonged and costly conflict.
A Calculated Military Response
In the months following Assad’s fall, Israel has carried out over 350 military strikes targeting airbases, weapon depots, chemical weapons sites, and naval assets, crippling an estimated 70-80% of Syria’s former military capabilities. But airstrikes are only part of the picture. Israeli forces have crossed into Syrian territory, including the buffer zone established by the 1974 ceasefire agreement, taking control of several villages and warning residents to stay indoors. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced plans to double the Israeli settler population in the Golan Heights, reinforcing its strategic grip on a region that has been under Israeli occupation since 1981.
Strategic Objectives: Security or Expansion?
Israel’s intervention appears to be driven by three primary objectives:
- Preventing Iran’s Military Presence
- With Assad gone, Tehran’s influence in Syria has been severely weakened, but not eliminated. Israeli officials fear that Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah, could exploit the chaos to entrench themselves near Israel’s borders.
- Netanyahu has warned that any emerging Syrian regime that allows Iranian forces to rearm will face severe retaliation. The Israeli Air Force has already targeted convoys suspected of carrying Iranian weapons, and further strikes remain likely.
- Shaping Post-Assad Syria
- By controlling key areas in southern Syria, Israel aims to secure leverage in future political negotiations over the country’s future.
- A long-term Israeli military presence—whether officially acknowledged or not—could be used as a bargaining chip to extract security guarantees from any new Syrian government.
- Reshaping Regional Power Dynamics
- Israel sees Assad’s downfall as an opportunity to reinforce its military superiority and curb Iran’s regional ambitions.
- Some analysts speculate that Israel’s foothold in Syria could serve as a launchpad for future operations against Iranian proxies in Iraq or even as part of a broader containment strategy against Tehran.
The Russia Factor: Friend or Foe?
Moscow, once Assad’s strongest backer, now faces a dilemma. Russia has long maintained close security ties with Israel, particularly over airspace coordination in Syria. However, with Assad gone, the Kremlin’s ability to influence events on the ground has diminished.
- If Russia steps back, Israel will have more operational freedom but could also face new security risks from a destabilized Syria.
- If Moscow seeks to reassert influence—perhaps by backing a new Syrian faction—Israel’s military campaign could escalate into a more complex confrontation.
- Russia’s balancing act between Israel and Iran will be a key factor in determining the long-term trajectory of this conflict.
The US and Western Reaction
Washington has largely supported Israel’s military operations, framing them as necessary for regional stability. However, there are growing concerns within the US administration about the risks of escalation.
- The Biden administration (or now its Trump successor) must now decide how far to back Israel’s deepening involvement in Syria.
- European leaders, already grappling with another wave of Syrian refugees, have expressed unease over Israeli military actions that have displaced civilians.
- If Israel’s campaign leads to prolonged occupation, it could strain diplomatic relations with key Western allies.
The Role of Non-State Actors
Beyond state actors, the collapse of Assad’s regime has created an opening for various non-state groups to expand their influence.
- Jihadist factions, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), could exploit the power vacuum, complicating Israel’s security calculations.
- There are also questions about whether Israel has engaged with certain Syrian opposition groups to further its objectives, or if it is strictly acting alone.
- If extremist groups gain ground, Israel may find itself caught in a multi-front conflict, not only against Iranian proxies but also against radical Sunni militants.
Domestic Debate in Israel: A Nation Divided?
Israel’s aggressive approach in Syria is not without controversy at home. While the government presents its actions as a security necessity, critics warn of potential long-term consequences.
- Some military strategists caution that a prolonged Israeli presence in Syria could overextend the IDF, drawing it into an open-ended conflict.
- Opposition politicians have raised concerns that Netanyahu’s decision to expand settlements in the Golan Heights could trigger international backlash, further isolating Israel diplomatically.
- There is also public unease over reports of civilian casualties and allegations that Israeli forces have fired on Syrian protesters opposing the occupation.
Future Scenarios: What Comes Next?
Israel’s actions in Syria raise fundamental questions about the country’s long-term strategy. Several possible scenarios could unfold:
- Short-Term Security Gains, Long-Term Uncertainty
- Israel succeeds in neutralizing immediate security threats, but its presence in Syria fuels resentment and long-term instability.
- Iran, though weakened, regroups and uses indirect methods—such as proxy attacks via Hezbollah—to counter Israeli advances.
- A Prolonged Military Standoff
- Israeli forces remain in southern Syria for an extended period, effectively creating a new security buffer zone.
- This could provoke resistance from both Syrian factions and external powers like Russia or Iran, leading to a drawn-out, costly engagement.
- Escalation into a Regional Conflict
- Iran or Hezbollah retaliate with direct strikes on Israeli territory, triggering a broader military confrontation.
- This scenario could draw in the US, Gulf states, and possibly even Turkey, transforming the Syrian crisis into a full-scale regional war.
Conclusion: A High-Risk Gamble
Israel’s evolving strategy in Syria marks a significant departure from its traditional policy of limited engagement. While the government insists that its actions are purely defensive, the scale of its intervention suggests a far-reaching geopolitical agenda.
If Israel succeeds in eliminating immediate threats, it could emerge as the dominant military force in the post-Assad landscape. However, if the conflict escalates or leads to prolonged occupation, Israel risks entangling itself in a quagmire with no clear exit strategy.
The coming months will determine whether Israel’s intervention secures lasting stability—or ignites a new chapter of conflict in an already volatile region.