Jewish reflections on an election like no other

Whatever we had expected for November 2024 seems to have all but dissipated. Joe Biden’s candidacy is no more nor is third party, Robert Kennedy Jr. The ascendancy we were charting in the Trump campaign earlier this year seems to have collapsed. If we had anticipated Kamala Harris as an also-ran, as simply the Vice-Presidential candidate that too has radically shifted, as she has emerged as the storyline of this fast-concluding election cycle.

For Jewish voters, the overlay of Israel’s ongoing crisis and the unsettling presence of antisemitism continue to provide a political backdrop to this year’s election. The Jewish card in this election has become more pronounced, even interesting, as the Second Husband, Doug Emhoff, becomes a high-profile player. But so much remains unsettled about this contest.

An array of issues currently occupies Jewish voter interest, among them the identity political concerns of Israel and antisemitism. On the broader stage, one can find abortion, immigration, the economy, and a host of other domestic considerations impacting voters, including Jewish Americans. The state of our democracy is on the ballot for many voters in this campaign!

With all the attention to these new campaign developments, the reality of 2024 still sits with the voters in only seven states, and here we can identify the heightened role likely to also be played by Jewish voters in these swing states. No longer do we need to pay specific attention to the significant Jewish vote in Florida, New York, or California but rather direct our attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and elsewhere among the “Bagel Belt” states, where smaller pockets of Jewish voters can have a real impact on the outcome this fall. Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada complete the mix of these contested races.

In this uncertain election season, we are likely to see some additional “unexpected” outcomes! We can possibly anticipate that a few more states may shift from being situated in one camp or the other, only to move to an “in play” position over the remaining two months of this contest.

We should expect the following, late money moving into each campaign, some major announcements by the respective candidates concerning policy issues, and the unexpected endorsements that should come to provide needed momentum to each campaign in what still appears to be a tight election cycle.

Currently, too much attention is being paid to “national polls” which in many ways distort the bottom line for an American Presidential campaign, the Electoral College. What truly counts here are the polls taken at the state level, as each political party is seeking to reach the magic number of the needed 270 Electoral Votes to win. And even here, polling may not tell us what the actual outcome will be, as all we need do is reflect back on 2016 to realize the uncertainty of polling data.

We should expect some directed play by both sides into the Jewish community. The reason for such specific attention is that Jews vote in extremely high numbers and in a close election, campaign advisors will play every ethnic, religious, and racial card available, including the Jewish vote! The focus on this vote will begin this week as the Republican Jewish Coalition holds its annual Leadership Summit.

As voting begins early in some key battleground states, we will see a growing number of television, radio, and social media ads in connection with the election, all building toward November 5^th. Some of these promotional efforts will no doubt be directed to Jewish related concerns and issues, especially in key battle ground states.

Jews reflect the various identities and political passions that drive and shape the American election scene. In monitoring the various “types” of Jewish voting behavior, we note the presence of “identity-politics” voters, who focus on specific self-interest concerns and the “Red Diaper” voters, who are the grandchildren and great grandchildren of the earlier generations of Jewish socialists, who embrace a progressive agenda. Mainstream Jewish liberals are clearly in play, as are traditional Neo-Conservative Jewish voters. In this campaign we will also see Jewish “religious values” participants who welcome the public role of religious ideas and practices as being core to the American story, as this class of voters emulates some of the views and beliefs of Evangelical Christians. These along with other specific categories of Jewish voting groups will all be present for the 60^th election of an American president!