Kallas and her EU’s Middle East Vision

As Europe navigates an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape marked by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and rising global tensions, HR/VP nominated Kaja Kallas has laid out a strategic vision to bolster the EU’s role as a key player in promoting peace and stability. Her plan emphasises four core pillars: humanitarian leadership, a commitment to a two-state solution, a robust partnership with the Gulf, and establishing a Mediterranean Pact. As conflicts in the Middle East escalate and global alliances shift, the EU must be more assertive in shaping diplomatic outcomes and securing regional stability. Kallas’ vision seeks to position Europe as a central mediator and a proactive actor in these challenges.

The EU’s future top diplomat dropped the first sign of a potentially new line on the Middle East last week, singling out her point of view to improve European proactivity in the region. “I am determined to deploy all my efforts in my capacity as HR/VP, and cooperating closely with the Commissioner for the Mediterranean, to put forward a comprehensive EU-Middle East Strategy and forge common EU positions,” Kallas said in written replies to members of the European Parliament published late on Tuesday, preparing for her confirmation hearing. The European Parliament will hold hearings for the following European Commission members this month. Kallas, designated to the European External Action Service leader, will be the High Representative and Vice President (HR/VP).

In her 21-page response to lawmakers’ questions before her confirmation, Kaja Kallas outlined her vision for Europe’s foreign policy amidst a highly complex geopolitical landscape. She stressed that the EU must remain at “the forefront of humanitarian efforts” in the Middle East and collaborate “with all actors to support the pursuit of a just and comprehensive peace.” Alongside this, Kallas pointed to broader challenges, such as China’s support for Russia, highlighting the need for a unified and proactive EU stance in global affairs.

Humanitarian Leadership in the Middle East

Kallas has emphasised the EU’s commitment to humanitarian leadership, especially following the terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, which have triggered the ongoing regional tensions. According to her, “There is an undeniable spillover effect of the crisis in the Middle East in the wake of the terrorist attacks, both as regards the escalation of the conflict and the highest level of antisemitism seen in Europe since the Holocaust.” This statement underscores the EU’s recognition of the broader implications of Middle Eastern conflicts on European stability and social cohesion.

Supporting a Two-State Solution

Kallas has already been clear about the EU’s commitment to humanitarian leadership, particularly following the 10/7 Hamas despicable attack. “Israel is engaged in self-defence against terrorism. During this defence, civilian lives should be spared, and norms of international law should be followed. Hamas shows no regard for human life, including for the lives of their fellow Palestinians. In a democracy, individual lives matter,” she said while receiving the Prix de L’Europe award from L’Express in Paris last year. Additionally, she condemned Iran’s April airstrike toward Israel, asserting the EU’s stance against any actions that destabilise the region.

Kallas’ strategy seems to be pursuing a just and comprehensive peace, focusing on the two-state solution as the foundation for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict–and starting a broader stabilisation in the region. She believes the EU must “remain at the forefront of humanitarian efforts, working with all actors to support the pursuit of a just and comprehensive peace in the region.” This is where the EU-Gulf partnership could be pivotal, as Gulf nations play an increasingly influential role in regional peace initiatives and international dynamics.

A Comprehensive EU-Middle East Strategy

A significant element of Kallas’ approach is the development of a comprehensive EU-Middle East Strategy aimed at aligning EU policies with key regional stakeholders, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This vision aligns with the recent EU-GCC Summit held in Brussels on October 16, 2024, under the theme “Strategic partnership for peace and prosperity.” The joint statement from the summit reaffirmed a shared commitment to promoting global and regional security and enhancing trade, energy cooperation, people-to-people contacts, new investments in sustainable technologies and the digital environment.

An “insightful” meeting between Luigi Di Maio, the European Union Special Representative for the Gulf region, and Deemah al Yahya, secretary-general of the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), highlights in these days the EU’s interest in this crucial digital partnership with the Gulf. “DCO can support the EU in achieving its Digital Decade objectives, whether it be creating a digitally skilled population, enhancing cross-border data flows, or advancing digital inclusion with women and youth at the forefront,” stated Al Yahya during Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative. This cooperation underscores a broader EU aim to strengthen economic and digital ties with the Gulf, reflecting Kallas’ strategic regional stability and integration goal.

The Pact for the Mediterranean

Another critical element of Kallas’ approach is the proposed “Pact for the Mediterranean,” which aims to reshape the EU’s relationship with the region, including Gulf countries. This initiative will be carried out closely with Dubravka Šuica, the Croatian Commissioner Designate for the Mediterranean, responsible for regional cooperation, economic relations, and climate change. The stability of the Mediterranean is intrinsically linked to that of the Middle East, as seen in the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon, both located along the Mediterranean coastline.

The EU’s priority is to build a strong partnership with the Mediterranean countries, address common challenges, and promote peace and prosperity in the region. In her written answers to MEPs, Šuica said that the new Pact for the Mediterranean should help restore confidence between the EU and the region’s countries, highlighting the importance of actively involving civil society and youth in decision-making processes to ensure more inclusive and representative policies. “The Mediterranean has long been a key gateway to three continents and a frontline for many geopolitical challenges,” said Presidente of EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen, meeting in October Cyprus President Nikos Christosoulides: “This makes the perspectives of Mediterranean Member States so vital to the EU.”

A Strategic Opportunity for EU-Gulf Relations

As Kallas charts the course for the EU’s future foreign policy, the Middle East countries—a pivotal area of the Enlarged Mediterranean region—are set to become central partners in addressing pressing challenges. From fostering peace in conflict zones to tackling the humanitarian crisis and boosting economic ties, the EU-Gulf relationship seems poised to be a cornerstone of Kallas’ foreign policy agenda.

The coming years will be crucial in determining how these relations evolve. This moment represents a strategic opportunity for the EU to redefine its role and affirm its geopolitical influence in the Middle East. Will Kallas’s new EU and the new von der Leyen Commission, in general, be capable of protecting its interests, helping the region, and competing with systemic rivals like China and Russia?