Let Our People Go

In this period, the three weeks leading up the 9th of Av, known in the Jewish tradition as “ben hametzarim,” the days of the dire straits,” when bad things happen to the Jewish nation, including the destruction of both Holy Temples and a variety of other catastrophes, one is tempted to look at the recent assassinations of Mohammed Deif in Khan Yunis and Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran leaders of Hamas, as well as Fuad Shukr a commander of Hezbollah near Beirut and think they too could lead to a catastrophe.  We need a Jeremiah or an Isaiah who could tell us what the future will bring.  Will this dramatic display of our might bring catastrophe and hopelessness or will it bring consolation and hope?

There are prophesies of doom aplenty (I have hinted at historical precedents elsewhere).  But there are also some possible scenarios where we might see that “out of the strong came something sweet,” (Judges 14:14).  Though I know it might be wishful thinking, here are my thoughts.

We all know that behind much that has transpired since the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and the near simultaneous aggression by Hezbollah into Northern Israel from Lebanon, as well as assaults from the Houthis in Yemen and from militias in Iraq and Syria are ultimately driven by the Iranians. Iranian operatives have been working alongside Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.  As a member of Hezbollah recently expressed it, “The Iranians control every bullet we have.”  This is largely true for Hamas as well.  We in Israel must therefore contend not only with a series of enemies but as well with “the one who is behind the enemy.”

Ironically this phrase comes from the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah who used it to refer to the United States. The Iranians have called the USA the “Great Satan,” who watches Israel’s (the “Little Satan”) back.  Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy, has attacked both. As Dexter Filkins reminds us “In 1983 Hezbollah suicide bombers killed more than a hundred people in two bombings at an Israeli military headquarters in Tyre, and fifty-eight soldiers at the French Army’s barracks in Beirut; an assault on the U.S. Marine barracks there left two hundred and forty-one dead.”  At the time, the C.I.A was authorized to find all those Hezbollah members involved and “kill every one of them.” Fuad Shukr, who was successfully targeted by Israel for his role in the attack on the Druze children in Majdal Shams in the Golan was also involved in those 1983 Beirut bombings. Israel has now finished that mission.

Alas, every time one of these leaders is killed, another, often more dangerous than his predecessor (perhaps to prove his suitability for his new status), ascends to his position.  We have seen this to be the case with Nasrallah and in Hamas with Yihya Sinwar. That is why many if not most of Israeli security chiefs agree this strategy of assassinations does little to nothing to advance a long-term peace or bring the hostages back from their imprisonment.

Increasingly, the smart leaders in the region understand that war with Israel has not solved anything.  Alas, the foolish ones involved in the current war: Netanyahu, Sinwar, Nasrallah, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, and above all Ali Khamenei of Iran who calls all the shots do not.  Our Prime Minister, who like them pursues a strategy that General Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, called “winning by not losing.”  Moreover, each believes that only a continuing conflict can keep them from losing their power and position. This leaves their own people as the true losers.

As opposed to them, the secure and smarter leaders realize and have come to embrace the advantages of peace in the region.  Among these I would count the Saudi, Egyptian, Jordanian, Moroccan, Algerian, and Sheikhs in the Gulf rulers. To get these leaders to become the dominant voices in the region we need to find a way to get the foolish others including our own government to understand that to keep on fighting is a losing strategy.  How?

First are the Iranians for whom the destruction of Israel has been a matter of faith from the outset of their rise to power.  In April, we witnessed the first direct attack by Iran on the state and people of Israel. The result was a military debacle that allowed Israel (with the crucial aid of the Americans as well as some of the smart leaders listed above) to demonstrate the weakness of the Iranian assault.  The assassination of yet another target in Iran, this time Haniyeh, without an invasion or even an incursion into Iranian airspace was yet another bit of evidence of the flawed security of the Iranian regime. Khamenei does not want another failure.  He cannot risk losing again, and will likely aim for something that is limited but a sure win that however will not bring a powerful counter-attack – lest Iran be deemed a paper tiger.

Because, as a senior American diplomat put it, we know that “Iran and Hezbollah are totally coördinated in every way,” we can expect that the two groups will combine their response.  Yet no doubt because of the recent assassinations both Nasrallah and Khamenei must entertain the possibility that they are each potentially in the crosshairs of their enemy.

The deadly and successful and undeterred attack by Israel on Yemen’s Hodeidah Port and ability to intercept Houthi rockets surely has impressed al-Houthi. How long can he win by losing?

Hamas’ leader Sinwar and his organization, like other Islamists who serve as proxies for Iran, share the belief that Israel is an alien Jewish entity in Dar al-Islam “land bequeathed to Islam.”  They believe as “senior Hamas official, Ghazi Hamad, declared on Lebanese television that the existence of Israel was “illogical” and that it must be eliminated. “We must teach Israel a lesson,” he said. “The Al-Aqsa Flood is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth.” They argue that they succeed not by winning wars but not losing them:  Hamas, said Hamad, had won a great victory. Considering the gap in the “capabilities” of the two sides, he said, “the weaker party can claim victory if it is able to survive.”  Nevertheless, in spite of this basic conviction, they have been weakened considerably and almost certainly disheartened by the steady and quickening attacks on their senior leadership as well as key supporters like General Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force.  Like the others, their strategy of winning by not losing is surely on shaky ground.

The credibility lost on October 7 by Israel’s security services and military regarding their might and defensive abilities has no doubt been somewhat restored among the ‘smart’ leadership.  But this impression will not last if Israel does not alienate its American allies, as Netanyahu seems to be doing.  Our inept and venal Prime Minister and his supporters in the government seem not to understand how even their winning by not losing tactic will not survive the loss of its American support.  They also seem not to comprehend that this approach is a failed strategy. Only if this government signs the current ceasefire deal on the table, as his negotiating team and the defense establishment as well as the Biden administration advises could Israel actually find its way to a comprehensive peace agreement with the smart leaders.  But for that to happen, Netanyahu will have to get past his selfish and despicable concern about his own political future.  Until that we are all hostages of his narcissism and self-centeredness.

I wonder whether if he were to be offered a dismissal of his corruption charges in return for his resignation and signature on the ceasefire agreement that all his negotiators have endorsed, perhaps this country of ours could be spared continuing conflict and his failed leadership.  With his agreement, it could lead to the return of our hostages and saving the rest of the people of Israel from being hostage to the Prime Minister’s worst instincts and personal obsessions.  Let Netanyahu go to Miami to be with his friend the Donald or let him hobnob with his rich friends and let our people go from his deadly grasp.