Don Davis
Don Davis

Middle East 2021 war expectations

Many analysts have contributed reports of potential regional conflict in 2021. But what makes 2021 different from the past years of rhetoric, contained conflicts, and war forecasts?

*Parts of this, my, report have already been published in The Christian Messenger, India.

Concerning Israel, Israeli politicians and military leadership have discussed the war topic extensively, mass missile strikes and civilian losses, and openly or leaked to the press. Many would argue, this is a major shift in past behavior and procedures, particularly, military leadership speaking out on record.

There is nearly constant training and testing. In anticipation to massive missile, mechanized, both technology and armor vehicle methods, and foreign soldier assaults. Planning for worse scenarios.

In addition, the dramatic rise in anti-Semitic attacks, war crimes investigations, funding to Iran, no nuclear enforcement of Iran, Iran boycott abandonment, China’s $400 billion deal with Iran, and fears of Iran’s completion of their nuclear program (who swear to wipe Israel off the map).

As well as, the comprehensive (on all sides) accelerated and excessive buildup of military arms, and the retaliation syndrome domed to spiral-out-of-control, plunging the Middle East into war. But it won’t be contained here, alleged Iranian cells and proxies will mercilessly hammer the USA and Europe.

Some individuals may feel that the situation is under control, or simply unsubstantiated Jewish Israeli paranoia.

Or, frequently, people that don’t permanently live in Israel, believe they understand Israel’s situation. But it is a mental understanding, not a physical experiencing of what Jewish Israelis have agonized with the past 70 plus years — which the majority of the world countries, race, culture and religions have not generally experienced on a continual basis.

Specifically, Israel’s exclusive, in history, reestablishment as a country in the modern era, democratic yet religious (or religious culture), re-statehood prompted by singularly being targeted and murdered for their Jewish faith in World War II.

Moreover, the dramatic rise in global anti-Semitic rhetoric and assaults, personal reports and stories from inflicted Jewish friends and family.

One can maintain, the Jewish State of Israel is the most unique country in the world, and this is paramount in relation to threats and warfare.

Immediately upon declaration of independence, Israel was attacked by a coalition army of seven surrounding, Arab Nations. Despite odds, Israel survived. Although, the next seventy-plus years Israel suffered perennial wars, mini-wars, appalling suicide and terror attacks on airlines with Israelis, in kibbutzim, public transportation, and commercial and public businesses to entail restaurants.

Muslim radicals deliberately targeting Jewish Israelis, maiming and killing scores of civilians (Jewish, Christian and Muslim), assassinations of Israelis, overseas bombings, kidnappings, local nationalist murders, and boycotts, regardless of the fact Israel has, and still does, provide some of the world’s best medical care, procedures, inventions and equipment. Not to mention, but I am anyway, Israel is a world-class, international contributor to computers, software, security, phones, gaming, music, and TV and film content. To list a few.

In continuation, Israel is small, only 10,762 square miles or 27,869 square kilometers with a population of under 10 million. For North Americans, Israel is about 3000 square miles bigger than New Jersey. For India, Israel is about 5000 square kilometers larger than the Indian States of Meghalaya or Manipur. For Europe and Russia, Israel is a little smaller than Albania. For the Middle East, Israel is about 5000 square kilometers bigger than Kuwait.

Israel is surrounded by countries that have been inhospitable in the past, others that currently oppose Israel’s Jewish presence, and others committed to removing Israel.

Rockets can hit Israel in 15 seconds, and Iran claims their guided missiles will reach in 7 minutes. Kidnapping is a viable fear. Terror threats never seem to cease. War crimes cries mount against Israelis, in what they, Israel, see as another direct threat to their survival of life, country and religion.

For 70 plus years, nearly all Israeli families have been torn apart by the Holocaust, war and terror.

Nonetheless despite everything listed above, the worse is Israel’s progressive belief USA will not protect Israel, or act in time. Therefore, the most dangerous, destabilizing scenario to conceivably transpire to Israel and the Jews since World War II.

Consequently, it is my opinion, with the combined analytic material of this region’s dire condition and documented history of Israel’s pattern of behavior and actions under threat, it is a gross miscalculation to underestimate what Israel, and the sitting Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will do. And, they will act alone if necessary, without consultation with any outsider or government.

The ‘new’ war crimes investigations only make these conditions and stresses worse, since Israel now firmly believes, the courts are against them no matter what Israel does. Therein, Israel has nothing to lose by using any method to attack and defend.

Israel has a defined classified, Red Line concerning Iran, and has seamless intelligence to precisely scrutinize. When that ‘line’ is crossed, Israel will react with overwhelming force. Being a small country and population, surrounded by threats, they cannot make errors or blunders in warfare.

Israel is estimated to have around 200 nuclear weapons, enough to level Iran, and other threatening nations. And, it is reported that during the Yom Kippur War, when circumstances were getting bleak for Israel, Israel’s government threatened Damascus and/or Cairo with total devastation.

Netanyahu has proven himself in combat, special operations, wounded, and lost a brother in special operations. Bibi has internationally shown he is not intimidated in protecting Israel and Jews worldwide (and what I believe he thinks is his political, consecrated and religious duty). Nor is he shaken by any global circumstances, and he has survived, an astounding, third, ruthless election. That should tell anyone what kind of a stout, fearless, character Netanyahu is, and his projected behavioral pattern against threats and war.

Furthermore, Israel has fearless, war-experienced people, resolve, ingenuity, and brilliant, local and regional multi-faceted intelligence. Though tragic, Israel learned from accomplishments, secrecy, and the loss of master spy, Eli Cohen. Israel can collect data, deceive and infiltrate with almost impunity.

Israel is a superpower like USA, Russia and China, in mini-form, but just as lethal, and I don’t think Iran grasps, or has been provided with the appropriate intel of, the full extent of Israel’s military global reach and regional supremacy.

Also, when USA, Russia, China or Turkey, puts new technology in the region to watch, protect or assault. Israel does not get flustered (if they do its only for show). Their customary reaction to any challenge is more like, oh goodie, new tech or strategies we can test to defeat. The Jewish Israeli, in life in general, is raised, trained, and encouraged to overcome, go around, fool, or conquer whatever obstacle is in their ‘path’. This is also a tangible, proven behavioral fact.

But as an analyst, I question why Iran would pick a fight with one the most powerful and nuclear-equipped armies in the combined Middle East, Africa, and European Theater? Wanting to fight an Israeli Army that has been in war and conflicts for more than 70 years. Have ongoing combat and counter-terror experience, can muster their entire armies (both men and women) quickly, and maintain the highest combat and border-ready combat units.

Israel has a Nuclear Triad of air, sea and ground, the most advanced weapons, the only stealth fighter in the Middle East, successfully using stealth also with impunity, effective anti-missile systems, decades of combat experience, and skilled male fighters, world-renown in air (aces), ground and sea. Highly skilled and trained female fighters, and tech that make them superwomen in combat.

Likewise, Israel has succeeded in special operations in Iraq, Syria, Uganda, Libya and others. This is undeniable. Israel has nearly a 100% success rate in operations (with occasional personnel losses).

In contrast, Iran has not been in war since the 1980s. Iran has no direct experience in warfare, and war has monstrously morphed into a new creature. Yet, Israel has been continuous since 1948.

Public reports have dictated, Israeli operations include executions, flybys, and cyber-attacks. Israel has the stealth and nuclear muscle to overcome armies, and have defeated Iran’s security features.

In the past international governments, told Israel, destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities cannot be done. But Israel knows they do not need to destroy the facilities, simply contaminate the sites and areas so nuclear facilities would have to be abandoned.

Iran, or any country, should not count on foreign ally armies, or your informers on the border, and in Israel, to be accurate. Many hate Israel, want Israel’s destruction, and have their own agenda, and/or are paid.

Therefore, human behavior would reflect that foreign armies and informers embellish information for pay, recognition, and their agenda. Remember what happened to Jordan in the 1967 War, they were fooled into joining the conflict, lost their air force, the West Bank, and the Temple Mount.

One thing nearly all analysts agree with; Iran, will decide their own fate and that of the Middle East, peace or horrid war, but odds and realities are not in Iran’s favor for victory.

Unless, Iran, as a martyr, are solely preparing to engage a nuclear Israel strictly to usher in the ‘end times’ by creating a world nuclear ‘holocaust’, this too will not come to pass.

China is too concentrated on their own agenda of business and monetary dominance, plague containment, ‘re-connecting’ their claims to Taiwan, the Pacific strategic islands, including, supposedly the prize, Hawaii, and revenge against Japan.

Russia is busy re-establishing their own USSR empire, business and monetary stabilization and continental control, plague containment, along with President Putin’s term extended for many more years. Putin will not endanger his standing, or Russia for Iran, at this stage.

The United States of America, they are busy with delicate and lengthy election transition, enormous inter-racial and cultural division, economy, plague containment, and Russian and Chinese threats.

However, there are Americans who want peace with Iran. Plus, if reported intel was correct, it was the Americans that ‘pressured’ Israel not to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities. That would mean, USA played a role in saving Iran.

In ending, I have been told, Muslims believe, God blesses those who are compassionate. So, maybe it is time for Iranian forgiveness towards America. And re-evaluation of combat with Israel.

About the Author
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But many of his abridged reports on current or Israeli subjects have been posted as articles or blogs in, The Times of Israel, The Christian Messenger, a newspaper/journal/magazine, and in American news online. Don is also the book author of The Children of Santiago, The Theogonic Resurrections and My three and a half hours at PMW.
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