Negotiations only work in a stable world
Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel. Ukraine and Russia. And many, many more cases around the world. Everyone wants to negotiate these days, it seems. On the surface, that’s good. Negotiations are good. They are supposed to lead to a stable world.
Wrong.
Negotiations don’t lead to global peace. For negotiations to work out, there needs to be a stable international environment to begin with. Otherwise, negotiations and diplomacy are mere illusions of stability, meant to appease the political class and the masses, create an illusion of peace so that people feel better about the dystopian future.
I keep seeing this talk about Ukrainians being forced to give up territory to Russia if Trump wins the elections. Let’s say that’s Trump’s plan. What do you think is going to happen then? Ukrainians are going to roll over and that’s it? Parents who lost their children and children who lost their parents in brutal Russian attacks are going to sit on their hands and do nothing? No, you’re going to have uprisings, partisan attacks, total chaos and that chaos is going to spill over to Russia, adding to Russia’s instability woes. You can’t just tell millions of people, many with hatred of Russia so great, we can’t possibly imagine, ”Well, yeah, you’re gonna be Russians now, deal with it” without a massive backlash. Ukrainians will fight to the death for their right to exist as a sovereign state.
Doesn’t matter what some reality-detached D.C. bureaucrats think about it.
Vladimir Putin has opened up a can of worms with his invasion and now we keep hearing all this negotiation talk. ”Oh yes, finally, the solution!” ”Korean scenario is the way” and so on and so forth. It’s all theorizing nonsense. Vladimir Putin has set off a chain reaction with potentially catastrophic consequences for the globe. No one fully controls this war anymore and anyone who thinks they are going to end it by signing a piece of paper or sanctions is delusional. I don’t know what the Russian President was really trying to achieve when he started this war but humanity is going to curse his name when it’s over – if anything survives. I’m sorry, Russians, but your country is responsible for the biggest crisis on the planet since World War II. This isn’t a civil war or a special military operation, as you cynically call it. This is a potentially civilization-ending event, regardless of what ”experts” and ”analysts” say. Fearmongering, warmongering? Hardly. Just logic. ISIS captures a tactical nuke warehouse somewhere in Russia. Impossible? Please. Who do you think guards these warehouses? Great Russian special ops warriors? Some, maybe, but I don’t believe every single warehouse is well-protected. Many are likely ”guarded” by a bunch of drunks or convicts who don’t know what day it is, especially now, with Putin sending who he can to Ukraine. ”Jihadis won’t know how to use a nuke!” you say. Nonsense.
A weak US President causes the whole international order to collapse and our enemies to run rampant like it’s a big party. We see it across the planet. Expect the missile barrages from Lebanon to worsen. It’s likely some of the hostages are never going to come back, no matter what promises politicians make.
Watch Russia dance around like a big bear and the CCP dance around Taiwan, using more and more hybrid warfare as Biden struggles to walk and talk until November, although, for all our sakes, maybe someone is going to replace him. Yes, he’s trying to prove he’s fit to hold the distinguished office of the President but he’s now in a negative spiral. Whatever he does, whatever he says, no one really cares anymore. I’m sorry, Biden Campain Managers or whoever is responsible for his public relations and election strategizing. There’s nothing you can do to turn this around. He is radioactive. Joe Biden has signed his own political death warrant. Think of a new teacher who’s being tested by his/her new students. If the teacher fails to control the classroom, he’s done. He/she can scream, shout, stomp, the students won’t care. A respected teacher just stands in the middle and stares at the class. Nothing else is needed to make the class go silent.
Sadly, Biden is that first teacher who throws hissy fits but no one gives a damn. Sure, his supporters cheer at rallies, so what? Preaching to the choir. He can give fiery speeches all he wants. Too late. The debate was the moment to shine and destroy Trump. Donald Trump is many things. A felon, a liar, we know the list. But he’s done something, in a way, genius: ”That’s who I am, I’m Trump.” And people expect just that. Trump being Trump. He’s arrogant, he’s cocky, he’s a womanizer, but, in spite of occasional slip-ups, he knows exactly what’s going on around him.
I don’t get it. A week in isolation to prepare for the debate and? What? A week? The best intelligence agencies in the world, the best minds in the world and this is what Biden could come up with? Jesus Christ. Yes, Trump has many, many flaws, he’s a felon and it’s surreal he’s likely going to be the next POTUS. Still, don’t blame Trump for all this. Trump isn’t evil incarnate. Trump derangement syndrome doesn’t help us. Biden has basically ended his own political career without Trump having to do a damn thing.
Negotiations in that kind of geopolitical context are doomed to fail. You need a strong security architecture and that’s impossible without strong US leadership.
Maybe there’s an alternate reality out there where a razor-intellectually-sharp female US president prances around in stilettos and orders US enemies around (no, that’s definitely not Kamala Harris, don’t worry, we’re talking alternate reality). Alas, we’re in a far darker reality.
Conferences, diplomatic talks and diplomatic protocol of when to curtsy and why, think-tanks, they sing from similar song sheets. It’s terrible, because the so-called experts and analysts are afraid to say anything which would jeopardize their jobs, careers. We need mavericks, we need people who are all over the map and aren’t afraid to boldly go where no one has gone before. We need more think-tanks like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, think-tanks with actual influence and not just showing off impressive vocabulary and ideas at conferences or to put photos with VIPs on social media. People who can look at an issue from many totally unrelated angles and aren’t afraid/limited by belief to consider any possibility. Otherwise, if we keep being linear, adhering to the 20th century notions of governance (again, hello, UN, how’s it going over there, still not paying your interns in the name of equality?), humanity’s not going to survive these crises. I’m unsure if the current civilizational architecture can change without a major war. It’s doubtful. Hyperbole? Hardly.
There will be a much better world one day, but not all of us will be around to see it. Not here, anyway, I believe it’s possible that we’re eternal souls, so we’re going to be on some other adventure.