Netanyahu’s Checkmate in 5 Moves

1. Benjamin Netanyahu is aiming for elections. His inner circle is pushing for this, understanding that his current political standing is at its best after the victory over Hezbollah, the fall of Assad (both results of a brilliantly executed modern Trojan Horse operation that succeeded beyond expectations), and the weakening of Hamas. Few on the right remember October 7th against him. This is also why he relatively easily agreed to a hostage deal that he had obstructed for over a year, to appeal to centrist voters.

The goal of elections now is to secure his rule and the right-wing’s power for years to come, especially for the next four years, Donald Trump’s term. Trump’s people, who outflank Smotrich from the right, will give a free hand as predicted by coalition members from the current U.S. administration. With or without U.S. government backing, Netanyahu will be able to advance judicial reform, media reform, attack Iran, expand sovereignty and the settlement enterprise, remain in Lebanon (perhaps also in Syria), and essentially do whatever they please.

2. Netanyahu’s trip to the U.S. also aims to meet with Trump and show diplomatic progress and economic prospects for Israel. Whether it happens or not is less important. However, Netanyahu’s main objectives for the long U.S. visit are: 

   a. Meetings with donors in preparation for electionsb.Receiving direct instructions from his handlers, Sarah and Yair

3. Netanyahu and his circle do not want to reach a solution on the issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription because there is no popular solution to this matter. Therefore, elections in the current situation are an ideal step from their perspective. The ultra-Orthodox will receive the same number of mandates in the elections, and the coalition he can form will be more or less similar (with Bennett or Gantz) to the existing situation, with a horizon of four-plus years.
4. What we will see in the coming weeks until the budget is passed is a series of fake crises between coalition members, with the goal of blowing everything up before the budget approval. What’s wrong for the members of this coalition, who have plundered the state coffers for various sectoral purposes, to continue receiving the same budget in the form of 1/12th?
5. If Netanyahu forms the next government as well, it will be difficult for the gatekeepers standing guard (unfortunately, Supreme Court President Amit has already bowed his head last week to Netanyahu’s emissary, Shlomo Karhi) to withstand the erosion of incitement and fake news from the Likud and its partners.

The ultra-Orthodox and national religious will continue to grow demographically, simply due to birth rates, and through hundreds of millions invested annually in brainwashing the public, especially children. Therefore, the right will continue to win elections and only increase its power.

The only solution for the center-left, which has always cowardly avoided it over the years, is one and only – a true partnership with 22% of the population – the Arab public.

Politics is mathematics. 22% of the public dramatically changes the political map and constitutes a majority for the center-left. However, the center-left is so afraid of being identified with the left and coming into contact with Arabs (thanks to brainwashing and incitement), to talk about peace and a Palestinian state alongside Israel that would end the conflict, that it is likely nothing will change until this happens. If it happens.