Netanyahu’s Effective Control Problem

Last night, for perhaps the first time that I can remember since October 07th, Netanyahu delivered a Zelensky style address to the Israeli public explaining his rationale for keeping the Philadelphi Corridor, the border road between Gaza and Egypt.

His performance came on the heels of a turbulent day that saw the Histadrut, Israel’s largest union representing a majority of unionized employees, take to the streets briefly in support of freeing the hostages. A show of support for those taken captive, a shutdown of Israel’s economy was also viewed by many as a reward for Hamas for butchering six hostages in cold blood. Netanyahu said so himself in his presser last night, “You killed our hostages and then we must cave in? What sort of message does that send?”

He is right of course, even though the hostages and their plight have taken over the soul of the nation. It took the largest protest since the Judicial Overhaul days for him to appear like Zelensky for an hour. Now that he outlined his plan and war aims, one can reflect on it. Unlike Hebrew op-eds, which focused on his slip up on October 7th (calling it October 09th at one point), and his “lies”, this one will focus on a more profound issue and one that clearly has had a central impact since the 2005 Disengagement.

Gaza Since 2005 and Diplomatic Pressure

In what was known as the Disengagement Plan, then PM Ariel Sharon decided to uproot all Israeli settlements and withdraw all Israeli military units from the Gaza Strip. Starting on Tisha B’av, and facing turbulent protests trying to save Gush Katif, the main settlement block, IDF forces leveled most of the Israeli communities in Gaza, one by one. Israel also withdrew from the border crossing in an agreement with Egypt, effectively ending its control over the territory. In 2007, Hamas, in a coup de tat, seized the territory from the Palestinian Authority.
Since then, Israel has fought four wars with Hamas not including the current October 7th War. As witnessed in 2011 when Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for one kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit who was seized in 2006, the country had no effective way to control events in the territory. Despite International claims that Israel “occupies” Gaza, it had no way to prevent Hamas from arming and doing as it pleasured. This in turn led to the Terror State of Hamastan that unleashed October 07th.

One of Netanyahu’s main talking points was stressing that it wasn’t due to lack of military ability or will that Israel had not returned since 2005, but diplomatic pressure. Facing a never-ending torrent of international initiatives to “end the occupation”, it is believable that there simply exists no diplomatic will worldwide for Israel to return as an occupying state. In its stead, using “facts on the ground” and being a “persistent objector”, Israel skirts International Law principles to maintain its strategic objectives.

The only party that allows Israel wiggle room is the United States. Without the United States, the United Nations Security Council would easily pass a unanimous binding resolution, even a Chapter VII, pertaining to Israel. It would trigger an international military campaign that would impose a Palestine by force. Does Israel want to become an Iraq or a North Korea? Under Netanyahu, the country had built inroads worldwide as a “normal” country, fostering a prosperous high-tech start-up industry and forgetting the pariah days of its youth. Yes, there is the Boycotts Divestment Sanctions (BDS) movement, but they were a fringe movement that could be kept at bay. As such, if the United States opposed an invasion of Gaza or Lebanon, Israel very much needed to heed. Once Israel left a territory, to reinvade needed a very good reason. Here I do not believe Netanyahu was bluffing.

However, it is noted that Netanyahu has been the leader of Israel for 14 of the last almost 20 years since Disengagement. His approach that everything is diplomacy has limits. If Israel needed the Philadelphi Corridor and Hamas rearms through it, why didnt the IDF invade it in one of the previous four wars? Why didn’t the IDF invade Philadelphi and Rafah first after October 07th, focusing rather on Gaza City, the administrative center? If the border zone is the oxygen for Hamas, why was the valve allowed to remain open for so long extending the war? Additionally he never spoke of the suitcases of $10 million of Qatari money that went to Hamas coffers every month. He also never spoke of the other elephant in the room: why Egypt is turning weapon smuggling and arming of Hamas into a profitable venture? For a country at peace with Israel, the arming of a group bent on Israel’s destruction, even for profit, is an unfriendly act. It is also not a friendly act for the Gazan people, as in addition to arming, Egypt refuses refuge for any Gazan (except for ones willing to be distorted for an exit permit). If the arms are arriving via Egypt, where is Egypt’s responsibility in the quagmire? It seems we truly have a cold peace with our southern neighbor and only strategic interest keeps them a “friend”.

The Issue of Effective Control

Netanyahu’s speech last night points to a desperate desire for effective control. In effect, Netanyahu is saying that Israel MUST, for its own security needs, control Gaza’s borders to end the rearming of the strip. However, International Law also stipulates that with effective control comes effective responsibility for Gaza’s population, something that is clearly rejected by Israel’s security establishment.

Netanyahu says that International diplomatic pressure prevents him from Occupying Gaza. However, he wants to select the pieces he wants, and not take responsibility for the rest. He did mention that there is no alternative at present to Hamas in the Gaza Strip and he is hoping for a day that there will be an alternative “authority” that he can pass power over to. For the forseeable time being, his solution, and that of the security establishment, is to treat Gaza as if it were the West Bank Area A, where it invades territory administered by the Palestinian Authority to fight ticking time bomb terrorists aimed at terrorizing Israelis. Such is the case in Jenin, Tubas, Tulkarem. Unlike in Gaza however, Israel has shown clear effective control in the territory it has not withdrawn from and can reach any point and neutralize threats in an impressive period of time.

Gaza however as mentioned has no such “alternative authority”. As such, Israel enters a void where it seeks to effectively control a territory without administering it as it should be obligated to do under international conventions. What this has caused is an extension of the war by keeping a largely emaciated but animalistic Hamas as the governing authority, and a dislocated population of most of the Gaza Strip. If Netanyahu wished for “complete victory”, he should simply invade Gaza, occupy it properly, then under Israel’s security apparatus, create an alternative authority. Far more stable, and less destructive than the current “raid and withdraw” strategy.

With Israel only able to rescue dozens of living but mostly dead hostages in 11 months it is clear that it lacks effective control, before and current. While there has been some progress lately around Rafah in recovering one living hostage amongst 12 dead ones, the only reason progress has occured is due to Israel effectively occupying, albeit briefly, the area with its army. Perhaps controlling Philadelphi will turn off the oxygen supply of weaponry, but without Israel controlling and inspecting every entry and exit point, including every package of humanitarian aid, preventing any rearming of Hamas will be close to impossible.

If Israel wants effective control and the destruction of Hamas it must reoccupy Gaza. It cannot have the cake and eat it too.