Not all infected people report

Apr 24, 2020, 5:18 PM

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I’ll give you an imaginative but not so far-fledged example.

Divorced father of two from the US, visiting his Israeli kids and ex. He gets the kids to stay over but also gets COVID-19. For two days, he can’t breathe. He takes Paracetamol and feels a bit better.

He sent his kids back to his ex. Within a day, she loses her sense of smell and taste. The next day, she has terrible chest pain but that subsides.

The kids were a bit cranky. They got sick and transported the virus to their mother.

Within a couple of days, they’re all fine again. And probably immune.

They never called a doctor. The father was afraid to be blamed. Also, the mother doesn’t want to be accused in the future in a court case that she was sick with the kids around.

So these are people who know that they went through it but it was too short and too mild to make an issue of it. (And in my example, also felt that they had a reason to be secretive about it.) These stories come on top of people who really had no symptoms at all.

Anti-Body Testing

We will only know how many people got infected and immune already once we have an anti-body test (to see if someone recently has developed immunity for this coronavirus) that is at random and mandatory done at a larger scale. There barely exists such a test, let alone that people could be obligated to cooperate being tested for the statistics.

On the one hand, if many of the infected hardly or not at all feel sick, its deadliness could be less than feared. On the other hand, if many die from the virus at home (UK, US) and are not counted, it’s worse than assumed.

From dictatorships (most countries) no numbers can be trusted.

For sure, when the poorer countries’ numbers will come in, the pandemic’s deadliness will dramatically rise above the present 6.8% of the infected. (Which in itself is probably half the real percentage because the mortality rate still relates to the much lower infection rate of days to weeks before.)

The above is a separate issue from the tests for who is sick and infectious at the moment. They are needed to prevent outbreaks from spreading. And that testing is already possible but has its own logistic problems.

More Unknowns

There are ongoing worries that getting over the infection might not be for good. That the virus might still be hiding and can reappear. Early worries that this virus likely very easily can mutate seem confirmed now. Add to this the newest finding that the virus may attack the immune system.

So, at least for now, we are still relatively in the dark. But physicians don’t raise their hands in despair when they don’t know something. These are simply some of the many unknown variables that they work with.

About the Author

MM is a prolific and creative writer and thinker, previously a daily blog contributor to the TOI. He often makes his readers laugh, mad, or assume he's nuts—close to perfect blogging. He's proud that his analytical short comments are removed both from left-wing and right-wing news sites. None of his content is generated by the new bore on the block, AI. * As a frontier thinker, he sees things many don't yet. He's half a prophet. Half. Let's not exaggerate. Or not at all because he doesn't claim G^d talks to him. He gives him good ideas—that's all. MM doesn't believe that people observe and think in a vacuum. He, therefore, wanted a broad bio that readers interested can track a bit what (lack of) backgrounds, experiences, and educations contribute to his visions. * This year, he will prioritize getting his unpublished books published rather than just blog posts. Next year, he hopes to focus on activism against human extinction. To find less-recent posts on a subject XXX among his over 2000 archived ones, go to the right-top corner of a Times of Israel page, click on the search icon and search "zuiden, XXX". One can find a second, wilder blog, to which one may subscribe too, here: https://mmvanzuiden.wordpress.com/ or by clicking on the globe icon next to his picture on top. * Like most of his readers, he believes in being friendly, respectful, and loyal. However, if you think those are his absolute top priorities, you might end up disappointed. His first loyalty is to the truth. He will try to stay within the limits of democratic and Jewish law, but he won't lie to support opinions or people when don't deserve that. (Yet, we all make honest mistakes, which is just fine and does not justify losing support.) He admits that he sometimes exaggerates to make a point, which could have him come across as nasty, while in actuality, he's quite a lovely person to interact with. He holds - how Dutch - that a strong opinion doesn't imply intolerance of other views. * Sometimes he's misunderstood because his wide and diverse field of vision seldomly fits any specialist's box. But that's exactly what some love about him. He has written a lot about Psychology (including Sexuality and Abuse), Medicine (including physical immortality), Science (including basic statistics), Politics (Israel, the US, and the Netherlands, Activism - more than leftwing or rightwing, he hopes to highlight reality), Oppression and Liberation (intersectionally, for young people, the elderly, non-Whites, women, workers, Jews, LGBTQIA+, foreigners and anyone else who's dehumanized or exploited), Integrity, Philosophy, Jews (Judaism, Zionism, Holocaust and Jewish Liberation), the Climate Crisis, Ecology and Veganism, Affairs from the news, or the Torah Portion of the Week, or new insights that suddenly befell him. * Chronologically, his most influential teachers are his parents, Nico (natan) van Zuiden and Betty (beisye) Nieweg, Wim Kan, Mozart, Harvey Jackins, Marshal Rosenberg, Reb Shlomo Carlebach, and, lehavdil bein chayim lechayim, Rabbi Dr. Natan Lopes Cardozo, Rav Zev Leff, and Rav Meir Lubin. 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When he can, he loves to write encyclopedic overviews. He doesn't expect his readers to agree. Rather, original minds should be disputed. In short, his main political positions are among others: anti-Trumpism, for Zionism, Intersectionality, non-violence, anti those who abuse democratic liberties, anti the fake ME peace process, for original-Orthodoxy, pro-Science, pro-Free Will, anti-blaming-the-victim, and for down-to-earth, classical optimism, and happiness. Read his blog on how he attempts to bridge any tensions between those ideas or fields. * He is a fetal survivor of the pharmaceutical industry (https://diethylstilbestrol.co.uk/studies/des-and-psychological-health/), born in 1953 to his parents who were Dutch-Jewish Holocaust survivors who met in the largest concentration camp in the Netherlands, Westerbork. He grew up a humble listener. It took him decades to become a speaker too, and decades more to admit to being a genius. But his humility was his to keep. 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He had three times 9-out-of-10 for Dutch at his high school finals but is spending his days communicating in English and Hebrew - how ironic. G-d must have a fine sense of humor. In case you wonder - yes, he is a bit dyslectic. If you're a native English speaker and wonder why you should read from people whose English is only their second language, consider the advantage of having an original peek outside of your cultural bubble. * To send any personal reaction to him, scroll to the top of the blog post and click Contact Me. * His newest books you may find here: https://www.amazon.com/s?i=stripbooks&rh=p_27%3AMoshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&s=relevancerank&text=Moshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&ref=dp_byline_sr_book_1