Opportunity Knocks

Over the last 10 years or so, the State of Israel has gone through a change that no one really talks about, or might not have even noticed. This change has brought us to where we are today, both in our relations with the enemy, as well as with our friends.

In 2014, after the abduction of three Israeli teenagers, Naftali Fraenkel, Gilad Shaer, and Eyal Yifrah, and repeated missile assaults on Israel, we began Miv’tza Tzuk Eitan, Operation Protective Edge. It, as all conflicts between Israel and its enemies, was ended by a ceasefire. It seems that at that time, something else came to an end: the idea that a negotiated settlement of the big-picture conflict between Israel and its enemies could be resolved through what was known as “the peace process,” leading to “a two-state solution.” 

How do I know this? The election that immediately followed this period led to Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu putting together a coalition of parties that formed what outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry pejoratively called “the most right-wing government in Israel’s history.” At that time, and for the five elections that followed, no one made mention of getting back to the bargaining table, reopening negotiations with the Palestinians, or the need for a two-state solution. The predominant thrust behind the opposition platform was to get rid of Netanyahu (some things have not changed…). It appeared to me then that we as a nation were in a kind of holding pattern: we had come to realize that what we had wanted – a negotiated settlement – would not work; the question then became well, what do we do instead? All the other options were what we had been trying to avoid. Annexation of Judea Samaria, expulsion or transfer of the Arab population, whatever options we might consider were unpalatable. I actually thought this was a positive development. It was a step forward to accept the failure as just that. Finding a new solution means first coming to terms with the futility of the old solution.

This, of course, did not answer the question. 

And then, Hamas attacked. It was swift and brutal, and they meant to impact us for the long haul – hence the kidnapping of 251 men, women, and children. For Hamas, they had seen the pattern of events often enough to rely on it. The pattern? Attack Israel in whatever fashion, so long as it prompts a response. What they expected was that Israel’s response would cause such loss of civilian life – Hamas’ line of defence – that the world would rein us in, and in that restraint, Hamas would make demands that we would be forced to satisfy in order to get to a ceasefire. 

What they did not expect was what no one expected. Israel declared war. Not an operation, as in previous attacks, but all-out war. Support for Israel, given the cruel savagery of the attack, was stronger than usual (though not strong enough). And then another unexpected surprise: newly-sworn-in President Donald Trump said, in short, that whatever Israel decides, he will support it. And that the civilians in Gaza should be moved out. Without fiat or fanfare, Trump made it possible for this conflict to proceed as all conflicts do when there is a victor and a vanquished. Israel is no longer responsible for solving the Palestinian issue. Egypt and Jordan, two of the countries that Israel defeated in the War of Independence, are being pressured to take responsibility, as the vanquished usually are. 

This is incredible. So incredible, in fact, that it looks like Israel is not sure what to do with this development. I know what I think we should do, but as Netanyahu said, there are things going on that cannot be discussed in public. As disturbing as it sounds, for the time being, we are going to have to take him at his word. We will see what comes in through this window.