Projections of Ukraine and Zelensky’s fate during Trump’s administration

US President Donald Trump was really angry with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after an argument at the White House on Friday, February 28, 2025. This could be seen from the very surprising decision taken by Donald Trump after that, namely suspending US military aid to Ukraine.

Inevitably, this step finally made Zelensky give in. After initially refusing to apologize, Zelensky said he wanted to “fix the situation” and was ready “at any time and in any format” to sign the mineral deal, which he left on the table during a visit to Washington after a debate in the Oval Office with Trump.

As I predicted in several previous articles precisely before Donald Trump was inaugurated, Donald Trump finally rebuilt a romantic relationship with the Kremlin. Trump again tried to approach Vladimir Putin so that the war that had been going on for more than three years between Russia and Ukraine could immediately find a peaceful solution. Trump tried hard to bring both parties to the negotiating table, where finally Saudi Arabia agreed to be the facilitator of the negotiations

On the other hand, Trump also still opens the opportunity for US’s aid to continue flowing to Ukraine, to prove that US does not support the possibility of Ukraine really “losing” to Putin. Since what Donald Trump wants is peace, not the military and geopolitical defeat of Ukraine in particular and Europe in general. To continue to get US support, Ukraine must pay something to US, namely a concession for US to exploit natural resources in the form of “rare earth” (mineral resources) in Ukraine.

Although these efforts are seen by Ukrainian leaders and European leaders as quite detrimental to the geopolitical interests of the western bloc that have been maintained for several years during Joe Biden’s administration, in the end the European and Ukrainian parties inevitably have to follow US’s wishes, considering US’s enormous role in Europe since World War II, especially in providing European security guarantees from the threat of Russia (formerly the Soviet Union).

Indeed, Europe has openly expressed its readiness to help Ukraine after the suspension of US military aid. However, many doubt that Europe can truly replace USs role in Ukraine, as  Donald Trump himself also threatened European NATO member countries to immediately meet the minimum budget contribution requirements for each member to NATO. If this is not met immediately, there is a possibility that US will withdraw from Europe and NATO, which is going to make Europe even more vulnerable to various pressures and attacks.

Thus, the shift in power in the White House from Joe Biden to Donald Trump has the potential to be a disaster not only for Ukraine and Zelenski, but also for Europe as a whole on the one hand. But on the other hand, it will be very beneficial for the Kremlin and Putin on the other hand, because US’s absence will immediately strengthen Russia’s hegemony on the European continent, both in terms of geopolitics and in terms of resources, especially oil and gas.

So, what is the projection of Ukraine’s fate going forward during Donald Trump’s administration? As I have written before regarding Donald Trump’s ambitions, first, it is very likely that the war will stop between Ukraine and Russia. The reason is, bringing peace to Eastern Europe will fulfill one of Donald Trump’s geopolitical platforms related to world peace on the one hand and minimizing US’s involvement in any form of war on the other. However, the risk of this peace proposal is that Ukraine must accept today’s factual position, where Russia is going to become the new ruler in areas that have been occupied by Russia for three years of war.

Second, Ukraine will continue to receive military aid from US to defend its remaining territorial sovereignty, not to continue the war with Russia. At least that way, Russia will think twice about restarting the war with Ukraine on the one hand and expanding its territorial ambitions towards Europe on the other, as the costs that Russia will bear will be increasingly expensive, considering US and Europe remain on Ukraine’s side, if Russia violates the agreement.

Third, it is very likely that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO, because Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO is one of the sources of conflict between the two countries so far. By reducing the possibility of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO, Russia will automatically lose its geopolitical legitimacy to expand its “sphere of influence” towards Europe, as there would have been buffer zone or at least a neutral area between Russia and NATO, namely Ukraine and Belarus.

And fourth, with these conditions, however, Ukraine will return to its original situation. Ukraine will become a symbolically neutral area. However, Ukraine will practically be the location where the tug of war of interests between the West and Russia is embodied in the map of Ukraine’s daily politics. Russia will try to influence Ukraine’s daily politics by supporting, even financing pro-Kremlin elites and political groups to control Ukraine like Ukrainian politics before the Madan Revolution.

In fact, Ukraine might become one of the countries where geopolitical proxy conflicts will manifest into everyday life in Ukraine, from social and cultural life to political economic life. The Ukrainian government today is projected to continue to carry out cultural suppression of socio-cultural groups that are considered affiliated with Russian culture. And this action is projected and expected to anger the Kremlin, then increase indirect intervention in these groups, which then increases political tension in Ukraine.

The first target of Russia and Putin is certainly to remove Zelenski and his supporters in the Ukrainian political arena through formal electoral procedures, then install a new leader who is much more accommodating to Russian interests on the one hand and accepted by Europe on the other, without ambition to become part of NATO. And most likely, the Donald Trump administration will allow that to happen, while continuing to pressure NATO not to spread its influence in Ukraine, to protect Vladimir Putin’s feelings of course. Trump’s move is certainly understandable. The goal is to reduce the potential for conflict in Eastern Europe that has been caused by NATO expansion.