Should We Pre-Emptively Strike?  

According to reports in the press, Israel’s Security Cabinet convened Thursday night to review the current threats to Israel from our neighbors. The fact that the meeting was in the below ground Command Room at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, underscores the perceived urgency of the situation. FYI, the last time they met in this location was the night of April 13-14 when Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel.

From Israel’s perspective, it appears that the most critical threat right now is from Hezbollah in Lebanon, which seems imminent. It is important to note that even without a clear decision by Hezbollah to retaliate for the assassination of Fuad Shukr two weeks ago, there has been a continual barrage of rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel. I am writing this at 1330 Israel time Friday. As I look on my phone’s “red alert” history, air raid warning sirens sounded an hour ago in Kfar Yuval, Kfar Giladii, Ma’ayan Baruch, Kirya Shmona, Tel Hai, etc….all in the north as they have for the last 20 hours. So, things are not quiet there, just 120 miles (224 km) north of where I live in Jerusalem. (FYI that’s the same as the distance from Philadelphia to Washington, DC.)

There is a lot of discussion in the media right now about a pre-emptive strike at Lebanon if it becomes clear that Hezbollah is ready to launch an attack.

It is important to stress that should Israel make such a decision the political and military leadership will need to be sure that such an attack is real and about to begin. Recall that Israel launched a successful pre-emptive attack in June 1967 when it was clear that Arab armies were ready to launch. Israel had similar intelligence in 1973 but then Prime Minister Golda Meir decided to wait until the attack began before launching a response. I don’t have to remind anyone which approach was better for Israel in the long run. But pre-emptive attacks can only be justified if we are sure that the enemy is about to attack.

Estimates of Hezbollah’s capability indicate that should they decide to attack they could launch up to 4,000 missiles a day at Israel and that they have sufficient inventory to keep this up for some days. Given that intel, Israel could decide to pre-empt before we suffer the damage that will, perforce, occur from such a volley of missiles. In a word, this is the dilemma the we are facing now.

In five hours the sabbath will begin here, a special sabbath called “Hazon” which is the first word of the prophetic reading for this shabbat, Isaiah 1:1. “Hazon” means “vision” and as this shabbat precedes the observance of Tisha b’Av, the 9^th day of the Hebrew month of Av on which we mourn the destruction of both the 1^st and 2^nd temples on that date (along with dozens of other calamities which also feel on that day throughout the generations), the prophetic reading speaks about the vision of the 3^rd temple in order to give us hope for the future during these difficult days.

Let us pray that this shabbat “Hazon” will mark the beginning of a new vision of an end to war and an opportunity for peace in this land which we have returned to and rebuilt so magnificently after a 2,000-year exile