Based on our high resolution ensemble forecast, expect a blizzard of snow Wednesday afternoon in Jerusalem. Heavy snow should fall with winds above 60 km/h.
That said, there is still ambiguity in the forecast snow amounts. The reason is that the southern edge of the rain/snow line (accounting for elevation) moved northward from the southern Negev to within the Jerusalem area since Monday’s blog update. This means that snowfall amounts in the Jerusalem area will be highly dependent on elevation.
As shown in the snow forecast map from this morning, forecast snow amounts range from 5 to 30 cm in and around Jerusalem. Our ensemble forecast shows the potential for 10 to 15 cm of snow by around midnight tomorrow night within Jerusalem itself. This assumes that most of the snow accumulates, rather than melts.
Later today, we plan on increasing the grid resolution of our forecasts, which will better resolve the topographical elevation within the city. This will give us a better idea how local elevation dependent temperatures will affect snow accumulation amounts.
The snow should start Wednesday morning, intensify in the afternoon, and continue into late night or Thursday morning.