Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick

Theordore “Teddy” Roosevelt has been known to generations of Americans for his pithy but accurate description as to how to handle foreign affairs: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”  Is Donald Trump doing the opposite? Is he speaking loudly and carrying a little stick?

Vladamir Putin hears the loud talk from President Trump and the little stick when it comes to keeping Russia’s territorial ambitions at bay. As soon as the United States stabbed Ukraine in the back and threatened the rest of the NATO alliance with extinction, Putin responded with his Iranian made rockets and drones. The Russian dictator has inflicted more death and destruction on the Ukrainian people than he was able to accomplish even under the feckless President Joe Biden.

Hamas is also laughing at the President’s loud words and little stick. While the President seems to be double-crossing Israel by negotiating directly with Hamas, the terrorists threaten to kill more hostages if they do not get their way. What is it that Hamas wants? They want to be able to kill, maim, murder, and rape Israelis, regardless of their nationality, and to rebuild their own military capabilities. The President can talk about Mar-a-Lago in Gaza, but he seems to be carrying no stick at all. Some would disagree with that. There is an argument that President Trump’s vocal support for Israel and allowing Israel to rearm, is at least a medium sized stick.

Meanwhile, back in China, the leadership is closely watching to determine when it can make its move to invade and take over Taiwan, the last bastion of democracy in that part of the world. They seem to have received the green light from the man who talks loudly and carries a small stick.

The United States learned some important lessons in World War II. Perhaps the most important lesson was the value of having trusted allies. For all of Donald Trump’s stumbling and bumbling, he is correct that our financially successful allies should foot more of the bill for their own self-defense. No one could reasonably disagree with that. He is also correct that if Canada is going to impose commerce crushing tariffs on American dairy products and forested wood, they may be playing with a forest fire.

There are also those who say that quiet diplomacy and speaking softly may sound good, but it never got anybody anywhere when it comes to international events.  After Pearl Habor, Franklin Roosevelt spoke loudly and wielded the biggest stick of all.

The indigenous citizens of Israel, who are the Jewish people, are watching Donald Trump carefully, wearily, and hopefully. They realize that as a tiny country with a population of less than 10 million people, what the United States says and does can make a difference between life and death. All of America’s allies are wondering just how reliable our great nation will be when the heat is on.

If there is a method to Donald Trump’s madness, it has yet to bear fruit or even to describe a clear understandable philosophy.

Donald Trump will be tested. The terrorists and their supporters fully expect to take advantage of a President who they think talks a good game while undermining his friends and allies. There are many in this world just waiting for the opportunity to take advantage of what appears to be the President’s instability. Mercurial is too kind a word for the President.

President Trump will find that it is more difficult to make up for ground lost to tyrants than to prevent a bad actor from carrying out their nefarious activity. As the United States and other democracies have learned from history, making up for naïve decisions is always more difficult than preventing territory from being seized in the first place.

Interestingly, the President has not said a word, at least not publicly about the war already being waged against the United States by Russia, China, North Korea, and a host of other countries. That war is a cyber war. Valuable, costly data have already been lost to America’s enemies. The press has been full of stories concerning the fact that American infrastructure has been targeted by foreign adversaries and that our power grid, for example, may have already been seriously affected by cyber intrusions. Many businesses can attest to having been jammed, scammed, and invaded. Some of them have paid blood money in the form of crypto currency, and others have been lucky.  The fortunate ones have prevented the loss of major data or business opportunity. Our own firm was almost hacked twice. Both times we were able to repel the invaders.

When we spoke to the FBI about the first malware attack, they informed us of how often this is happening in Central Pennsylvania alone. “You were lucky! You were able to stop the attack before you lost any data.” We asked them if they knew where the attack came from, and the FBI indicated that it may have been Singapore, Vietnam, or North Korea. In any event, the hackers moved so quickly that wherever they were when they attacked, they are not there anymore. The United States has proven itself helpless to prevent attacks on our businesses, government, and infrastructure notwithstanding billions spent.

What is the man with the loud voice and the small stick going to do about the war that is already being waged against the United States?

Recently, when President Trump was asked what he would do if Hamas did not release the hostages, he marked, “You’ll see.” Well, that is a bit softer, and we have yet to see what the President will wield to prove that he is not just another puff of warm air on a hot summer afternoon.

Hypocracy is nothing new in politics. The same president who criticized Joe Biden for the way the United States left Afghanistan, doubled down and effectively abandoned Ukraine. What people in Israel and around the globe are wondering is whether the United States can be trusted anymore. Are we a friend, advisory, or simply opportunistic?

President Trump has to remember that he is not bullying some small contractor in Atlantic City. In that scenario, he could merely declare bankruptcy and walk away from the mess. On the world stage, the President is not dealing with a small contractor who has no serious means to protect itself from a guy who needs to find his big stick.