Strategic vulnerabilities: Targeting Israel’s Infrastructure and Global Energy

The current situation in Israel represents an unprecedented and multifaceted threat, extending beyond visible conflicts with Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north. The most perilous aspect stems from the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), capable of crippling Israel’s support infrastructure and disrupting global stability.

The current situation in Israel presents an unprecedented and multi-faceted threat, one that extends far beyond the immediate and visible conflicts with the Houthis and Hamas in the south, and Hezbollah in the north. The most perilous aspect of this threat emanates from the Iranian regime and its proxies, who are continually strategizing to destabilise Israel and its support networks in ways that could have devastating global repercussions.

Iran, with its extensive arsenal and proxy networks, poses a direct and existential threat to Israel. The recent escalation in violence, particularly with Hezbollah’s relentless assaults on northern Israel and the ongoing war against Hamas, underscores the intensity and immediacy of this danger. However, the Iranian threat transcends conventional military confrontations. The regime in Tehran possesses the capability to inflict severe damage not by striking Israel directly but by targeting the critical infrastructure that supports the Jewish state and that of its allies, thereby weakening its strategic and economic stability.

One of the most alarming scenarios is the potential for Iran to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passageway is a critical artery for global oil and gas supplies, with approximately 20% of the world’s petroleum and about a quarter of its liquefied natural gas passing through it. An Iranian move to close or heavily disrupt this strait would not only send shockwaves through global energy markets but also cripple the supply chains that Israel and many other nations depend on. The economic consequences would be catastrophic, leading to a sharp spike in energy prices and triggering a global economic crisis.

The large-scale Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel on 15th July 2024, though repelled by Israel’s formidable missile defence systems, has starkly illustrated the potential for Iranian aggression. The Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems displayed their exceptional capabilities, intercepting the barrage with precision. However, this event also exposed the broader regional implications of Iran’s military actions. The coordinated response from Israel’s neighbours, as well as the UK and the US, highlighted a collective recognition of the Iranian threat. These nations united to intercept and neutralise the Iranian projectiles, demonstrating a rare moment of geopolitical solidarity.

In light of the defensive success, this attack was a strategic fiasco for Iran, highlighting the limitations of a direct confrontation with Israel due to the geographic distance and Israel’s advanced defence systems. Given these constraints, it is highly probable that the Iranian regime is reassessing its strategic options. With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, now aged 84, the internal power dynamics within Iran are fraught with tension. The regime is acutely aware of the need to project power both domestically and internationally to maintain its grip on power amidst these internal uncertainties.

In this volatile context, the strategic value of targeting the Strait of Hormuz becomes glaringly evident. An attack on this vital choke point would serve multiple purposes for Iran. It would disrupt global oil supplies, causing economic turmoil in the West, which is already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by the prolonged war in Ukraine. This disruption would also potentially benefit Russia, one of Iran’s few allies, by driving up global oil prices. Furthermore,  whether as an intentional or coincidental side-effect,  it would add fuel to the political fires in the US, where Donald Trump has been vociferously criticising the current administration’s handling of energy prices and Middle Eastern threats.

The repercussions of such a move would be manifold. Western nations, already strained by economic pressures, would face even more significant challenges. The ability of these countries to continue their support for Israel would be tested as they contend with domestic economic instability and political upheaval, which is already only too visible in France, the UK and elsewhere. The ripple effects on the global economy would be profound, affecting everything from energy prices to the stability of international markets.

An Iranian attack on the Strait of Hormuz would significantly escalate tensions not only at an international level but also within the Sunni and Shia communities. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for global oil shipments, and any disruption would severely impact the economies of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which are predominantly Sunni. These countries rely heavily on oil exports for their income and stability. An attack could be perceived as a strategic move by Shia-majority Iran to undermine Sunni-majority Arab states, exacerbating sectarian divides. This could lead to heightened distrust and conflict between Sunni and Shia communities, as the economic strain would likely fuel existing political and religious tensions. The resulting instability in Arab capitals could destabilise the region further, leading to potential civil unrest, economic hardship, and a resurgence of militant activities as different factions vie for power and influence amidst the chaos.

In light of this looming threat, it is imperative to ask whether the West is adequately prepared not only to defend Israel but also to safeguard its own interests. The protection of Israel is intrinsically linked to the security of global energy supplies and, by extension, the stability of the global economy. 

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community must strengthen its resolve and preparedness. Diplomatic, economic, and military strategies must be aligned to counteract Iranian aggression effectively. Ensuring the uninterrupted flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is not merely about protecting energy supplies; it is about maintaining the balance of global power and preventing the catastrophic consequences of economic warfare.

While Israel’s immediate defence capabilities have proven robust, the broader strategy must involve a comprehensive and coordinated international military effort to address the underlying threats posed by Iran. The West must be vigilant and proactive in protecting not only Israel but also the global economic infrastructure that is vital to the stability and security of nations worldwide.

Written in collaboration with Catherine Perez-Shakdam