Thanks to Israel and Ukraine, America Ascendant

The past few weeks have been very difficult for Russia’s Vladimir Putin.  For the first time since World War II, Russia is being invaded by a foreign army.  This also marks the first time that a non-nuclear power is invading a nuclear power.

Compounding the astonishment of the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region in Russia is the inability of Putin’s army to stop it.  This same Russian military that Putin estimated could conquer Ukraine in two weeks, now finds itself not only unable to come close to Kyiv after over two years, but also unable to prevent parts of its own land being conquered.  Add to that the enormous loss of life of Russian soldiers during the Ukraine “special military operation” and the shortages of weaponry that are now so acute that Moscow must turn to Iran for resupply, and the picture grows of a Russian military that is unlikely to be adventurous for some time after the Ukraine affair is over.

China certainly has noticed.  President  Xi already is pulling back from a natural gas pipeline previously scheduled from Siberia to China https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmarkind/2024/06/25/china-delivers-another-economic-blow-to-russia/.  While Chinese policy remains consistent that Taiwan must be retaken by the mainland, Putin’s failure in Ukraine is sure to give the rulers in Beijing pause to consider exactly how they could fight a heavily armed and determined Taiwan protected by the South China Sea.

In the Middle East the situation grinds on, with Gaza continuing to be chopped up, Hezbollah demanding major strikes against Israel then seeming to be incapable of delivering them, and Iran orchestrating much of the regional conflict yet ruled by a regime that is terrified of its own people.  Last month Israel humiliated the Ayatollahs by killing Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh in Teheran during celebrations around the swearing in of a new Iranian president.  To date Iran has not been able to  respond effectively, resulting in ridicule in the Arab world.

As all of this plays out the United States has remained committed to its two beleaguered allies, Ukraine and Israel, despite calls on its far right to cut off Ukraine and on the liberal left to do the same to Israel.  Two years after the Biden Administration left Afghanistan precipitously to the Taliban (who this week banned women from speaking in public), the Administration has shown significant backbone in standing by other allies, no matter what college intellectuals preach.

As a result of American support and the bravery shown by Ukraine and Israel, America’s international position is stronger than it has been in decades.  Its major international competitors have shrunk before our eyes.  Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar may seek a regional war, but Ayatollah Khamenei is desperate to avoid one.  Vladimir Putin may eventually succeed in Ukraine, but how long can he occupy a large, restive country that despises Russia when Russia’s army is so hollowed out?  Sweden and Finland now have joined NATO.  Europe has found other suppliers for oil and natural gas.  At this point, even if Putin wins Russia loses.

Over the last few years there have been a serious of political coups in central Africa in countries such as Guinea, Chad and Niger.  While little noticed in the West, these African countries contain some of the rare earth elements needed in much of modern life, and certainly in any thought of energy transition away from fossil fuels.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmarkind/2024/06/19/can-we-achieve-energy-transition-without-the-american-war-machine/.  Despite their importance, in each case the Biden Administration did nothing to prevent the coup, most alarmingly in Niger where an American ally who had been elected democratically was deposed by a small amount of his former Presidential guard.  https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/echoes-from-niger-may-be-felt-in-jerusalem/.   Upon seizing power, each of the new military leaders pledged fealty to Vladimir Putin.  That does not seem to be a very good bet these days.  Instead of Moscow, it is toward Washington that they now need to look for stability and support, as Russia has little to offer.

The moral of the last two years is becoming increasingly clear.  Those who stick by their people when their allies are fighting for their lives are rewarded.  Those who succumb to the passions of the fringes that demand ideological and moral purity from those whose very existence is threatened are not.  When America steps to the podium at the United Nations in September for the opening of the next session, it will do so from a position internationally of increased strength.  Let’s hope each of our two major presidential candidates appreciates how that came about.