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Giovanni Giacalone
Eyes everywhere

The ‘deal’ would be a win for Hamas, Biden and Trump, but not for Israel

Neo-elected US President, Donald Trump (Youtube screenshot. used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law).

Reaching a deal with Hamas just a few days before the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House? The timing is indeed interesting as we all recall Trump’s hawkish rhetoric against Hamas: “…if those hostages aren’t released by the time I get office there will be hell to pay.”

And again:

I don’t think I have to get into it… But it won’t be the word ‘don’t,’ you know,” referring to the warning made by US President Joe Biden on October 10, 2023, in a speech pledging support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’s October 7th atrocities.

However, the new “deal” doesn’t seem to have much new if compared to the previous one supported by the Biden administration, which is still up and running until January 20th, let’s keep that well in mind.

Considering that both, Biden and Trump, are supporting this deal, and that over the last two weeks, Brett McGurk, US President Joe Biden’s lead hostage negotiator, has been living in Doha, Qatar to work on the negotiation, it’s difficult to perceive any difference in position between Trump and Biden.

Many hoped that the incoming Trump administration would adopt an entirely different approach and stronger policies, basically removing the “handcuffs” on Israel, enabling the IDF to eradicate Hamas in Gaza, if all hostages are not immediately and unconditionally released. Hamas should be the only one to be strongly pressured, and there are many ways to do this.

However, the situation seems to be quite different. Israel is once again being pressured by the United States to implement a catastrophic agreement with a terrorist entity that should have been eradicated long ago. Hamas is torn to pieces but still active in Gaza and this would be the right time to finish the job, once and for all. The hostages should all be released at the same time and unconditionally. No release of Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons.

Let’s not be naïve, Hamas has no interest in releasing all the hostages, because they are the only leverage the terrorist organization has against Israel, its life insurance. The release process will go on for months, maybe years and, in the meantime, Hamas will ask for guarantees regarding its permanence and political role in Gaza. Agreeing to this, would imply handing over to Hamas a half victory that the terrorists would immediately claim as the result of inflexible resistance. After all, isn’t that what Hezbollah did after being torn into pieces by the Israeli military campaign in Lebanon? Unfortunately, in Hamas’ case it would objectively be a positive outcome for the terrorist organization. In addition, did the Israeli soldiers who died in Gaza fighting the terrorists deserve this? They lost their lives to eradicate Hamas.

Hamas wants to be sure that it will remain in power in Gaza, that Israel will leave the Strip and that the remaining leaders will not be hunted down. Indeed, Israel cannot afford any of these options, because it would mean handing the victory over to Hamas.

Negotiations incentivize terrorists to repeat the atrocities committed, perhaps raising the stakes, aware of the fact that the strategy is functional to their objectives and their cause. Moreover, negotiating allows the terrorist organization to acquire political legitimacy, elevating it to a legitimate interlocutor, both at a national and international level.

The agreement is being supported by Trump to convey the idea that Hamas, worried about his arrival, has decided to free the hostages. However, the real situation is different. The agreement is advantageous for Hamas and disadvantageous for Israel and the pressure seems more marked on Israel. This is surely not what we would have expected.

 

About the Author
Giovanni Giacalone is a senior analyst in Islamist extremism and terrorism at the Italian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies-Catholic University of Milan, at the Europe desk for the UK-based think tank Islamic Theology of Counter-Terrorism, and a researcher for Centro Studi Machiavelli. Since 2021 he is the coordinator for the "Latin America group" at the International Institute for the Study of Security-ITSS. In 2023 Giacalone published the book “The Tablighi Jamaat in Europe”.
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